The Anthropocene crisis and Higher Education: A fundamental shift


D. Carstens

Arts/Law Extended Curriculum Programme University of the Western Cape Cape Town, South Africa e-mail: carstensdelphi@gmail.com

ABSTRACT
This article seeks to address a fundamental shift that has occurred in reality; a displacement that requires us to critically account for the ways in which knowledge is both being produced and taught at universities. The recent re-naming of the current geological epoch after anthropos has some chilling implications for humans and the ecosystems on which their livelihoods depend. As pedagogues, the crisis of the Anthropocene demands that we make drastic interventions in the way we teach and in what we teach. My aim is to suggest ways in which Deleuzoguattarian schizoanalysis, intersecting as it does with critical posthumanism, the affective turn and the new materialisms, might assist us in this process of crafting socially and environmentally-just pedagogies that are relevant to the contemporary situation. In so doing, I will address some of the uncanny ethical, ontological, epistemological and affective configurations of these theoretical perspectives to show how these ideas may impact the curriculum of socially/environmentally just pedagogies and the practice of such pedagogies in higher education.


Keywords: Anthropocene, Capitalocene, Anthrobscene, Cthulucene, transversal thinking, the uncanny, schizoanalysis, critical posthumanism, machinic enslavement, capitalist realism, transdisciplinarity, onto-epistemology, 6th extinction, Deleuze and Guattari


INTRODUCTION

The Anthropocene could be described in terms of ‘learning to live in blasted landscapes’ and ‘coping with life in the aftermath of global anthropogenic disasters’ (Kirksey, Shapiro and Brodine 2013, 15). The uncanny spectre of life thrown out of balance by the actions of anthropos requires, as a matter of urgency, new approaches to both ontology and epistemology. This article will discuss ways in which we might foster ‘transversal thinking’ – a concept that is central to Deleuze and Guattari’s formulation of schizoanalysis. This ‘onto-epistemology’ (a way of being and thinking) favours inclusiveness, flexibility, mutability and multiplicity, acknowledging the entangled kinships between humans and a multitude of non-human others. Such an uncanny aesthetic formulation, moreover, requires coming to terms with uncomfortable knowledge about the unhinged world that humans have brought into existence.

Donna Haraway’s slogan ‘Cyborgs for Earthly Survival’ (2015, 161) gets to the core of my suggested schizoanalytical or transversal approach. To be a cyborg in Haraway’s sense does not mean to be a ‘man-machine’ but rather to be symbiotically alive to a multiplicity of nonhuman critters and things. As Karen Barad (2007, 136) explains, being a posthuman cyborg means fostering a type of transversal thinking that takes ‘issue with human exceptionalism while being accountable for the role we play in the differential constitution and differential positioning of the human among other creatures’. Such a perspective implies a keen sense of the uncanny because it requires a critical engagement with the unfamiliar, strange and uncomfortable. It requires us to untangle our familiar world of hierarchical and binary constructions and to consider the strange, intensive and entangled world of affects we share with animals and things. According to Isabelle Stengers (2015), the arrival of the Anthropocene, the so-called ‘age of man’, is in itself uncanny, requiring that we engage with difficult knowledge and ‘stay with the trouble’ as Haraway (2015b) would put it, taking cognisance of the damage we have already done and might yet do to the network of life we find ourselves inextricably embedded in. As Stengers (2015) writes, a fundamental ‘reality shift’ is taking place – and has been taking place for a long time already. A schizoanalytic approach, as I will argue, forms a useful navigational tool for mapping the stormy waters of this reality shift in the classroom.


THE ANTHOPOCENE CRISIS

We are no longer in the Holocene, a geological epoch that began 11 500 years ago with the ending of the cycle of Pleistocene ice-ages. Since the advent of industrial capitalism, we have been in the Anthropocene, a geological epoch wholly shaped and characterised by accelerated human impacts on the lithosphere, hydrosphere, atmosphere, and biosphere of planet Earth. As Haraway (2015, 160) explains, the Holocene named ‘a period when refugia, places of refuge, still existed, even abounded, to sustain reworlding in rich cultural and biological diversity’, whereas the Anthropocene ‘is about the destruction of places and times of refuge for people and other critters’. Human beings ‘have so altered the planet in just the past century or two that we’ve ushered in a new [geological] epoch’ writes Elizabeth Kolbert (2011, 70). Indicators of the Anthropocene include a spike of ‘bacterial’ proportion in human population and resource consumption, the chemical alteration of the world’s atmosphere and hydrosphere as well as massive losses of biodiversity and ecosystem degradation that are so profound that scientists now accept the reality of an ongoing 6th mass extinction of biological life (Kolbert 2011, 73). The situation is so dire that scientists believe that losses (of biodiversity and ecosystems) will surpass the voracity of the 5th major extinction event (the asteroid impact that killed-off the dinosaurs 65 million years ago) within the next few decades. Furthermore, as Stengers (2015) writes, we
are incontrovertibly at the end of ‘cheap nature’ and all that this implies for economies, societies and institutions. As Haraway bluntly explains, ‘cheapening nature cannot work much longer to sustain extraction and production … most of the reserves of the earth have been drained, burned, depleted, poisoned, exterminated, and otherwise exhausted’ (2015, 160).
In his science-fiction novel 2312 (2012), the author Kim Stanley Robinson refers to the current state of Anthropocene affairs as ‘the dithering’; a name that recalls the entrenchment of our current global economic system and our refusal to accept and deal with the realities of climate change, biosphere destruction and all the weighty implications of these destructive scenarios (see Beauchamp 2013; Haraway 2015a). This begs the question: how are we as academics coping with the capitalist system of unquestioned consumerism that is hastening extinction or engaging with the phenomenon of the Anthropocene (if in fact we are engaging with these issues at all?). More pertinently for this publication, how are we preparing students for collapsing worlds (societies, economies, environments, etc.) ‒ realities that do not lie in some distant future, but in the here and now.


Machinic enslavement

While many students, particularly first generation learners in South Africa, may lack access to nutritionally adequate meals or appropriate living and studying conditions (let alone post-university employment opportunities and viable economic futures), an increasingly large number have access to televisions, cellphones or smartphones and, of course, capitalism’s mediated dreams of consumer oblivion. As Deleuze and Guattari (1988, 457) would have it, new technological networks have both ‘deterritorialising’ and ‘reterritorialising’ effects; while freeing or deterritorialising us, they reterritorialise or embedd us more firmly in a culture of ‘machinic enslavement’ in which we effectively think and act as automatons. Manuel Castells (1996) describes how the networked communication media of late capitalism create the illusion of a seamless ‘ever present’ and a global culture of ‘real virtuality’. All, of course, is not well with our ‘seamless ever present’, which has, in fact, been hard-wired for constant socio-economic instability. While South Africa is currently experiencing a crippling drought (threatening both food security and, potentially hundreds of thousands of jobs) as a result of global warming-related El Nino effects, the spectre of globalisation-related socio-economic instability (such as a devalued currency, escalating costs of living and collapsing job-markets) looms large (and often unspoken) in our classrooms. While Paul Virilio (2009) writes about how technological networks numb consumers to the true scope of capitalism’s apocalyptic impact on nature, society and individuals, Jean Baudrillard (1994) theorises the noxious impact of ‘hyperreality’; a technological apathy or mediated ‘brain fog’ that spreads, virus-like, with communications media, smothering the globalised world in a haze of simulacra and consumer oblivion. Mark Fisher (2009) refers to the impact of this mediated hyperreality as ‘capitalist realism’ – a ‘mental disorder’, the symptoms of which manifest in higher education institutions in the form of apathy, cynicism and mental agitation. ‘The slogan which sums up the new conditions is “no long term”’, writes Fisher (2009, 32), warning that the biggest problem for contemporary students and pedagogues may be the pernicious impact of technological networks on critical faculties. ‘What we in the classroom are now facing is a generation born into ahistorical, anti-mnemonic blip culture’; a ‘dyslexic’, or rather a ‘postlexic’ generation ‘who process capital’s image dense data very effectively without the need to read’ or even think (2009, 25). Coupled with new post-Fordist modes of capital, production and labour, the complex connectivity engendered by the ‘networked space of flows’ (the globally interconnected system of electronically-based financial transactions, telecommunications networks, television, social media, the internet, etc.) has generated, as Castells (1996, 436) writes, an uncanny experience that is ‘globally connected but locally disconnected’.

The space of flows has engendered an uncanny temporarility; a radically unstable geopolitical situation in which anything can happen at any time, it can happen very rapidly, and its sequence will be independent of what goes on in the places where its effects are felt. As David Bell (2007, 77) notes, time as well as space have become ‘accelerated, randomised and desequenced’, upsetting the ‘former rhythms of life’. Today, in the minds of many theorists, economists, politicians and pedagogues, we have the situation of a state of wild ontological and epistemological disorientation, combined with a deadly sense of paralysis. In the background, which frequently morphs into the foreground, there is the uncanny spectre of immanent biospheric and socio-economic collapse. In short, the very fabric of life (both ecological and social) is under threat. These socio-economic, cultural and pedagogical issues foreground the arrival the Anthropocene, ‘a new epoch of the earth’, as James Proctor (2013, 83) writes, ‘in which nature [including human nature] is no longer as natural as it once was (or seemed)’. At the root of the problem are outdated and problematic ‘notions of nature’ and ‘what it means to be human’ that inform dominant paradigms of knowledge production, technoscientific innovation and cultural/economic practice (2013, 83). At stake are questionable (one might, in fact, say highly poisonous) conceptions of progress and human exceptionalism which are promulgated, often unquestioned, in subjects and disciplines that span the arts/humanities and the sciences. Welcome to the Anthropocene or, as Haraway (2015b), Stengers (2015) and many others would describe it, the ‘Capitalocene’.


SCHIZOANALYSIS AND THE UNCANNY

In Anti-Oedipus (1983), Deleuze and Guattari conceptualise ‘schizoanalysis’ as a critique of the normative models of industrial capitalist society and its flawed socio-political and eco-social engagements. Concerned with how learned patterns of behavior are inherited from and promulgated unquestioningly by educational institutions and socio-political regimes, they set out to discover new means of mapping cognitive and affective processes and configurations, both at the level of the individual and at that of the social. As they explain in Anti-Oedipus’ sequel, A thousand plateaus (1988), while capitalism erodes or deterritorialises traditional hierarchies, promising to give ever greater numbers of individuals access to self mastery and material comforts, its’ relentless decoding of social and eco-social relations gives way to a new set of reterritorialisations or rigorous and constraining contours, bringing into play a new ‘megamachine’ of cybernetic control, ‘machinic enslavement’ and environmental destructiveness. They ask readers to uproot themselves from social/institutional conditioning, tease out the ‘intangible’ and unconscious sets of poisoned affective disorders that govern their ‘enslavement’ and to use the insights gained from this process of conceptual deterritorialisation to engender radical social and pedagogical transformations. Guattari explains the schizoanalytical agenda thusly: ‘Without pretending to promote a didactic program, it is a matter of … escap[ing] the systems of modeling in which we are entangled and which are in the process of completely polluting us, head and heart’ (1996, 132).
In A thousand plateaus (1988) Deleuze and Guattari demonstrate how a multitude of insights and approaches from different disciplines and forms of knowledge may come unexpectedly together. Key to their suggested program of schizoanalysis or transversal thinking is an aesthetic perspective open to transports of affect and sudden flashes of insight; one that apprehends reality as a multileveled and polyphonic whole made from interlocking parts. Guattari (2002) emphasises that what is needed, above all, is to foster greater interactivity, participation, and spaces for cultural minorities as well as alternative models of thought and action. To think and teach transversally or schizoanalytically, he writes (2002), means having the courage to map the entangled, unspoken, uncanny and uncomfortable relations that characterise modern machine-mediated consumer society.
But what does it mean to be shizoanalytical and to engage with uncanny transdisciplinary entanglements? In A thousand plateaus, Deleuze and Guattari (1988, 69) ask that we ‘consider the strata’ of knowledge production (the hierarchical division of knowledge into subjects and disciplines) and realise that ‘there is no fixed order’:

… one stratum can serve directly as a substratum for another … or the apparent order can be reversed with cultural or technical phenomena providing a good soup for the development of insects, bacteria, germs, or even particles. … Furthermore, if one considers the plane of consistency we note that the most disparate of things and signs move upon it: a semiotic fragment rubs shoulders with a chemical reaction, an electron crashes into a language, a black hole captures a genetic message, a crystallisation produces a passion, the wasp and the orchid cross a letter. There is no ‘like’ here, we are not saying ‘like an electron’, ‘like an interaction’, etc. The plane of consistency is the abolition of all metaphor; all that consists is real. There are electrons in perversion, veritable black holes, actual organites, authentic sign sequences. It’s just that they have been uprooted from their strata, destratified, decoded, deterritorialised … and that is what makes their proximity in the plane of consistency possible. A silent dance.

Schizoanalysis is a Deleuzoguattarian term for the type of uncomfortably strange and unfamiliar onto-epistemological ‘mixing’ that lies at the core of the new materialist and critical posthumanist approaches to knowledge, some of which I will be discussing presently. Their ‘thousand plateaus’ are new diffractive languages with which to express the immanent, multiplex, schizophrenic, transversal and entangled ‘natures’ of human relations to the world. These entail crafting new onto-epistemological assemblages by ranging across multiple areas of learning and ways of perceiving; cross-pollinating the jargon of molecular biology with that of literature, philosophy, chemistry, physics, philosophy, economics, anthropology, psychology, etc. With this in mind, Joni Adamson, MeiMei Evans and Rachel Stein write that ‘education which aims to be environmentally just’ and in line with the new approaches to knowledge must ‘translate the mantra of ecology (all is connected) into a web of concrete relations that includes not only ecological but cultural, economic and political processes’ (in Adamson, Evans and Stein 2002, 11). There can be no socially-just pedagogy, for example, that does not take cognisance of environmental, historical, economic and scientific concerns. My own approach to teaching posthumanly encourages students to think shizoanalytically or transversally by foregrounding history, society and science as outcomes of attitudes toward and relationships with the environment in which individuals, cultures, animals and things are inextricably embedded. I present students with a series of interconnected readings that explore geology, biology, anthropology, history, science, sociology and economics in relation to the environment (and to ontological and epistemological constructions of familiar binary oppositions such as self/other, nature/culture and, of course human/world). Environmental justice is a core issue that lies at the heart of contemporary (post)humanities; one that permeates (albeit silently) all existing disciplines and facilitates connections to be made between them. It may, in fact, spore a raft of new disciplines in the near future (and it may emphatically need to if our species is to survive).

In The uncanny (2009), Nicolas Royle argues ‘for the importance of notions of the uncanny as a way of beginning to think about culture, philosophy, religion, literature, science, politics in the present’ (2009, 22). Like Deleuze and Guattari, Royle calls for a form of transversal thinking and doing that is able to navigate between multiple areas of knowledge and practice. Such an uncanny onto-epistemology, he writes (2009, 3), is necessary for coming to grips with the contemporary state of affairs; ‘a situation in which we appear to have mastered nature, yet are taking the world to pieces in ways and speeds beyond our control’. This is a difficult and entangled paradox that we need to schizoanalytically explore in the classroom by referring to interconnected examples from a broad array of fields and disciplines. We should stay with the trouble when we seek to engage students with the entangled question of ethical and environmental responsibility; in short, we should engage students by fostering an uncanny aesthetic approach to learning and knowledge. As Royle (2003, 2) explains, the uncanny has to do with the unfamiliar; a sense of creeping strangeness located in ontological and epistemological disturbance – ‘a crisis of the natural, touching upon everything that one might have thought was “part of nature”: one’s own nature, human nature, the nature of reality and the world’. Part of the uncanny, he writes (2003, 8) is realising that we, along with our students, are caught up and implicated in the very processes we are trying to comprehend. As posited most famously by Freud building on the work of Jentsch, the uncanny is to do with what Deleuze and Guattari would later describe as schizoanalytical deterritorialisation. It is about the unheimliche (literally, the ‘unhomely’); a sense of being ‘lost in the world’ that assaults us when the familiar is rendered unfamiliar, when the boundaries that separate nature from culture, animate from inanimate, individual from collective, living from dead, embodied from disembodied, or the future from present or past are suddenly agitated (2003, 2). More importantly, the uncanny is also about experiencing the sudden flashes of insight that accompany seeing the familiar in an unfamiliar light (2009, 3). These are all useful points of departure that should be considered when constructing Anthropocene-appropriate curricula. After all, these questions directly address the uncanny agency of anthropos, the ‘classically-framed’ (hu)man that finds himself suddenly embroiled in ‘a strangeness given to dissolving all assurances about [stable] identity’ (2003, 9). The uncanny as Royle explains, is when ‘one tries to keep oneself out [of the trouble], but one cannot … [when] the escape clause is confounded’ (2003, 10).

Ronald Barnett (2005) maintains that the notion of strangeness promises nothing less than a ‘new universal’ for the university in an age of supercomplexity. Teaching in this vision works in ‘strange spaces’, becoming focused on ‘the production of human capacities … for the personal assimilation and creation of strangeness’ (2005, 795). An uncanny climate of global uncertainty calls for an urgently-needed ontological turn in higher education; a greater concern with the nature of being in relation to teaching and learning, and a nurturing in students of the ability to live with precariousness. The Anthropocene, he writes (2007, 1) calls for a fluid and entangled schizoanalytical pedagogy ‘that opens up unfamiliar spaces and calls for a will to learn even amid uncertainty’; a pedagogy which encourages students ‘to come into new modes of being’. For Royle (2003, 52) too, ‘intellectual uncertainty’ – central to many understandings of the uncanny – is something generative, exhilarating and ‘a crucial dimension of any teaching worth of the name’. As Sian Bayne (2008, 197) writes, ‘volatile, unfamiliar spaces for learning perhaps materialise and to an extent literalise the idea of “awkward spaces” – when used well, they open to us vibrant new domains where generative intellectual uncertainties might be nurtured’.


Critical posthuman and new materialist pedagogical perspectives

Despite the entrenchment of anthropos in the mediated machineries of the Capitalocene, there are, in fact, numerous maps of new and exciting posthuman territories; science-fictional mazings that might lead us away from catastrophe. The well-defined and well-disciplined intellectual boundaries between humans, other lifeforms and matter itself have indeed been collapsing since the dawn of the information age and its networked space of flows. As feminist new materialist author (and practicing scientist) Karen Barad (2007, 27) reminds us, advances in physics, chemistry and molecular biology as well as ‘the recent convergence of biotechnologies, information technologies and nanotechnologies [are] reconfigur[ing] the human and its others so rapidly that it is already overloading the circuits of the human imagination’. Like Deleuze and Guattari, new materialists like Barad and Jussi Parikka as well as critical posthumanists like Rosi Braidotti, Iris van der Tuin and Haraway foreground entanglements and interdependencies between disciplines, histories, temporalities, bodies and things, natures and cultures.

As with Deleuzoguattarian schizoanalyis, critical posthumanist and new materialist perspectives ask us to consider the uncanny dimensions of uncomfortable knowledge and to be at ease with precariousness. Critical posthumanism as Barad (2007, 136) reminds us, should not be understood as some ‘postmodernist celebration’ of the ‘death of the human’ or ‘the next stage of Man’. Rather, as Haraway (2015a, 160) concurs, it asks us to consider the ‘dynamic ongoing sym-chthonic forces and powers of which people are a part, within which ongoingness is at stake’. Critical posthumanists or ‘compostists’ (a term implying a radical schizoanalytical ‘mixing together’ that Haraway substitutes for posthumanism) inhabit the ‘Cthulucene’ as opposed to the Anthropocene or Capitalocene. Cthulucene, as a term, not only recalls the dreaded ‘tentacled ones’ of pre-civilised myth, but also inheres in the wonderfully bizarre and radically entangled complex interspecies networks of our living present that contemporary studies in molecular biology are beginning to unravel. For Haraway (2015a, 160), the Cthulucene, describes the task of posthumanist pedagogy as a process of uncanny transversal engagement; an ‘intense commitment and collaborative work and play with other terrans, flourishing for rich multispecies assemblages that include people’. Clearly, there is a dire need to schizoanalytically explore the uncomfortably uncanny entanglements of nature and culture as well as the roles played by false cultural ‘dicho-tomies’ or ‘cuttings apart’ (Barad 2014, 168) that are central to the manufactured reality-constructs of the Anthropocene. We need to investigate how we got into this anthropocentric fix, writes Kim Stanley Robinson (in Beauchamp 2013, 1), suggesting ‘Raymond Williams’s idea of the residual and emergent’ as a useful thinking and pedagogical tool. Using this method in the classroom, we would trace aspects of the ‘present in the past and future’; detecting the present as emergent from the past, we would investigate ‘what is emerging now’, and speculate about what might persist and ‘be in the future a residual’ (Robinson in Beauchamp 2013, 1). Iris van der Tuin, referring Deleuze, urges pedagogues to develop a take on the past as active and ongoing. A ‘virtual past is a past considered ontologically’, she explains (2014, 232); a past that is ‘a condition of the passage into the living present’ where we might enact new epistemologies. She describes the forging of a critical posthuman and new materialist onto-epistemology by which we think and teach, ‘without presupposing dualist structures such as subject and object, word and world, nature and culture’ (2014, 233). Engaging with these kinds of speculative fabulations or ‘thought experiments’ via our prescribed materials, assessments and classroom debates is key to what Guattari (1995, 1996) refers to as ‘ecosophy’ or ‘chaosmosis’. The gist of chaosmosis is an approach that it at ease with uncertainty and radical otherness; it is what Robinson (in Beauchamp 2013) refers to as a transversal and schizoanalytical process of thinking about and fostering the formerly unthinkable; namely, ‘just, inclusive and sustainable human interactions with the biosphere and each other’.

Neither immaterial or infinite: the value of thinking post or beyond the human

New-materialist and critical posthumanism turns in theory have, as Sean Cubitt (2015, 1) writes, encouraged scholars and pedagogues to consider the entangled ‘materials and technical affordances’ of devices, desires and cultural productions. As Parikka explains (2014, 37), the ‘immaterial sphere of information’ (namely, the mediated space of flows, ‘cyberpsace’ or the ‘information super-highway’ of cellphone, internet, financial and televisual networks) is, of course, quite untidily embroiled with the social, the environmental and the deep-time of geology. The energy resources and materials that have made postmodern cyberspaces possible are gathered from exhaustible geological layerings that represent irreplaceably finite environmental ‘services’ (such as the mineral, metal and fossil fuel deposits on which our energy-intensive information economy depends) garnered over hundreds of millions of years of geological time. Parikka (2014, 37) asks pedagogues to consider and teach about how the dire socio-political fall-outs of the coltan (columbite–tantalite) mines in central Africa are inseparable from the global flow of information economies, and asks that the long-lasting toxic environmental (and social) residues of digital production and e-waste not be overlooked or glossed over in the classroom. As Cubitt (2015, 1) explains, new-materialist and critical posthuman perspectives frame the social, the political and the technoscientific in relation ‘to the central concerns of how things work, what they are made of, and how they mediate between non-human and human domains’. A critical posthuman or new-materialist pedagogical perspective would therefore take urgent cognisance of these transdisciplinary entanglements that implicate a multiplicity of species, ecosystems, societies and raw materials. The current affective turn in theory, of which Deleuze and Guattari are the primary engineers, would, in turn, ask us to consider the haecceities (the uncanny aesthetic relationalities) that these entanglements have conjured into being; i.e. the ‘crises of feeling’ that they have engendered. Here Jussi Parikka’s neologism ‘Anthrobscene’ (a combination of ‘Anthro’ and ‘obscene’ ‒ and also the title of an excellent essay by Parikka) is perhaps a useful affect-laden descriptor of the current situation. Haraway’s Cthulucene speaks affectively as well as cognitively (and, of course, more hopefully) of alternative technological and eco-social possibilities and assemblages yet to come.

The Earth’s resources are clearly not infinite, although contemporary consumer culture, as Parikka (2014) or Haraway (2015a) write, appears to be premised around this dangerous assumption. In the final chapter of his comparative environmental history Collapse (2004), Jared Diamond clearly outlines the 12 major environmental problems currently caused and experienced by humanity, 3 of which relate to ceilings on the availability of fossil fuels and other related natural resources (other problems relate to the destruction of ecosystems and species, industrial and e-waste pollution, as well as population growth and rising levels of consumption). As Diamond clearly argues in laymans terms, these problems are not only inextricably interrelated with how humans think and do, but they are also uncannily entangled with one another. Moreover, any one of them, if left untreated, could result in the catastrophic and immanent collapse of human society. This fascinating reading which, like Parikka’s Anthrobscene (2014) essay, highlights the dire socio-economic entanglements of the Anthropocene (and includes, as a bonus, compelling arguments for alternative uses to which social media could be put), has been a prescribed reading for my students for the last 10 years. It constitutes merely one example amongst a host of fascinating and informative transdisciplinary engagements that are surfacing today in the work of an array of critical posthuman and new materialist-inspired thinkers, scientists, historians, sociologists and pedagogues.

The ingression of the Anthropocene/Anthrobscene has become a rallying point for transdisciplinarity across the (post)humanities and the sciences. Yet it is a difficult conversation to implement in practice, especially because it poses significant challenges to how existing disciplines are conceptualised, funded and taught. How, for instance, can we theorize temporal and spatial scales that allow us to hold the planetary and the particular in the same frame? This might challenge us to think speculatively beyond the limits of the ‘human’, to engage both speculatively and critically with states, materials and lifeforms anterior, posterior or completely outside human ‘givenness’. To help my students engage with these decidedly uncanny and transversally-orientated issues, for example, I start the academic year with a chapter called ‘Evolution in perspective’ taken from Ian McCallum’s Ecological intelligence: Seeing ourselves in nature (2001). Covering the vast time-scales of cosmic, geological and biological evolution in laymans terms, McCallum not only bridges between religious and scientific perspectives, but shows how the cultural evolution of the human species is inextricably related to and embedded within these inhuman events and immensities. There are clear benefits to such a speculative approach that asks students to consider not only communalities between different cultural approaches, but also to ponder uncanny timescales and events that reach well beyond narrow human temporalities. More than this, McCallum concludes the chapter by asking readers to consider contemporary neurosciences and their revelations about the levels of cognition and ‘consciousness’ that we share with our animal kin. The Anthropocene, after all, is both a crisis of and possibility for epistemology and ontology; suggesting an onto-epistemology of being and thinking that is intimate with and immanent to the Earth, its materials, processes and multitudes of lifeforms. It requires us to regard the world, its critters and things as they exist in and for themselves (and not just ‘for us’) and to problematise our fictions of separation. These inquiries, with their implications for how we rethink our relations to (and embeddedness in) the world, require us to think schizoanalytically and transversally. They also form the core of critical posthuman and new materialist turns in theory, presenting, as van der Tuin (2014, 231) writes, new ‘avenues for productive scholarly engagement with the twenty-first-century ecological, energy and financial crises, including their (dis-)continuous processes of in- and exclusion’.


Challenges for Anthropocene-appropriate pedagogies

The convention of single-discipline knowledge and teaching is no longer adequate for making sense of the complex socio-ecological issues facing the denizens of Earth (which include humans and a multitude of ‘others’) in the 21st century. Relational, critical, anticipatory and complex forms of knowledge and learning need to be at the core of the ‘new education’ of the Anthropocene, both in South Africa and elsewhere. The ‘greening’ of education thus far has generally consisted of adding new bits of green content to existing courses or introducing a few new interdisciplinary degree programs. Such steps, while positive, ‘are unfortunately inadequate for meeting students’ needs today or in the future’, writes Heila Lotz-Sisitka (2014, 1). We are entering a world of rapid and unpredictable environmental change, which is ushering in unprecedented social, cultural, economic and political consequences. In a world of interconnected economies, ecosystems and weather patterns the local can no longer be productively seperated from the global; both are messily entangled. The real challenge of the Anthropocene, therefore, is that it has introduced elements of uncertainty into particular, regional, cultural and, indeed, all narrowly constructed areas of human knowledge. In higher education, we therefore need to rethink what constitutes appropriate ‘knowledge’, engage with uncertainty and foster new forms of transdisciplinary learning that are not just about ‘facts’, but which encourage anticipatory, uncanny and transveral forms of thinking. However, before we think about tossing the baby out with the bath-water, Lotz-Sisitka (2014, 1) cautions that curricula relevant to the twenty-first century will need to have a far stronger and more robust basis in disciplinary knowledge whilst ‘engaging this strength in inter- and transdisciplinary learning and practice’. The erosion of disciplinary knowledge and the watering down of critical inquiry may be where some of the trouble with academia is at today. As Fisher (2009, 23‒24) points out, not only are disciplines themselves are fatally out of touch with the times, but the basic critical skills necessary for fostering and engaging with disciplinary and transdisciplinary knowledges are fading too:

Ask students to read for more than a few sentences and many – and these are university students mind you – will protest that they can’t do it. The most frequent complaint is that it’s boring. It is not so much the written material that is at issue here; it is the act of reading itself that is deemed ‘boring’. What we are facing here is not just time-honored student torpor, but the mismatch between a post-literate ‘new flesh’ that is ‘too wired to concentrate’ and the confining, conventional logics of decaying disciplinary systems. To be bored simply means to be removed from the communicative sensation-stimulus matrix of texting, YouTube and fast food; to be denied for a moment, the constant flow of sugary gratification on demand. Some students want [knowledge] in the same way they want a hamburger; they fail to grasp – and the logic of the consumer system encourages this misapprehension – that the indigestibility, the difficulty is [knowledge].

Haraway (2015b, 1) has recently remarked that what’s at stake these days is ‘staying with the trouble’. In the light of Fisher and Lotz-Sisitka’s observations, we could interpret this to mean encouraging literacy and bringing reading back into the classroom. As Haraway (2015a, 161) humorously sloganises it elsewhere: ‘Shut up and train!’. Of course, Haraway (2015b) is primarily concerned with avoiding any kind of human exceptionalism and getting rid, once and for all, of the incapacity to think the world that is actually being lived. For Haraway and other critical posthumanists such as Braidotti and Barad, as well as for affective schizoanalysts such as Deleuze and Guattari, staying with the trouble means engaging with difficult, entangled and uncanny knowledge. This means that what is being read is as much at stake as the act of reading itself; we cannot shy away from the complex and uncomfortable issues of entanglement that are at stake in the Anthropocene/Anthrobscene. Our students are more aware of these issues than we might think; what they want from us is to teach them how to engage with these difficult entanglements that seem to imperil and annul their future. They might, in any event, enjoy the stimulation of difficult knowledge – as my own experience in challenging foundation-level students in the arts with world-changing debates in the sciences suggests. I am with Haraway when she emphasises (2015b) that we need to be both speculatively and transversally orientated in our approach to pedagogy.

As Braidotti (2014) points out, there are several challenges that face pedagogy today at universities; first and foremost being ‘how to we tackle the uncanny question of what it means to be (pos)thuman in the light of present Anthropocene developments’? Perhaps we need to begin by foregrounding, as Braidotti (2013, 144) suggests, the ‘hierarchical exclusion[s] and cultural hegemonies’ that have been used to construct standard ‘androcentric’ answers. In order to grapple with posthuman ontological and epistemological perspectives, we first need to engage with the historical, political, technoscientific, social, environmental and geological movements and forces that have produced this phenomenon. Ingredients in the Anthropocene soup include (but but are by no means restricted to) human migrations around the planet, the development of agriculture and civilisation, the advent of science, industrial capitalism, the revolution in molecular biology, the development of the space of flows, the onset of the 6th extinction and the theoretical ‘arrival’ of the posthuman. These are all topics of inclusion in Anthropocene curricula that might help us to cultivate ‘radical relationality’ and a sense of ‘multiple allegiances’ implied in ‘post-anthropocentric’ redefinitions of the human (Braidotti 2013, 144). Failing to give students a critical foothold in any of the key areas that are shaping the Anthropocene, writes Stengers (2015, 142), means fatally hamstringing their capacity to engage with the world that is actually being lived. Our task is to turn our students into ‘actants’ rather than passive consumers (or worse, victims) of late capitalist realities. Quite often, however, despite our best attempts, our students remain unwilling actants.

In her Cyborg manifesto (1991), Haraway chronicles the most uncanny notion of all: as machines grow increasingly more lively and animated, humans seem to be growing more and more shockingly inert. Instead of becoming more than human, our entanglements with media technologies and Capitalocene subjectivities seem to have turned us into something rather less than human (with no insult intended to non-human others). Many of our students, writes Fisher (2009, 21), have become ‘stranded between the old role of being the subject of a disciplinary institution’ and their new roles as the abject ‘consumers of services’. The pathologies of late capitalism (such as attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, depressive hedonia, etc.) have ensured that many students nowadays, although relentless in their pursuit of commodity pleasures, are simultaneously overwhelmed with an affective torpor. ‘A sense that something is missing’ and that there is ‘nothing to do about it’ besets them as they dream of being ‘plugged-in to television, PlayStation, social media and fast-food oblivion’ (Fisher 2009, 23). Of course, commodity distractions and amusements have existed in some form or another throughout the ages. Simarly, as Fisher (2009:24) writes, the task of pedagogues has always been to bring home to students that their mysterious ‘missing sense can only be accessed beyond the commodity pleasure principle’. As critical posthuman pedagogues today, however, our task has manifestly become more urgent than ever before. First and foremost, we may need to inculcate in students the ability to critically recognise the poisoned status quo in which they find themselves embedded and complicit. Here the work of Naomi Klein, Mike Davis and the Adbusters collective, for instance, may provide useful critical inroads for exploring with students the phenomenon of consumer addiction and passivity. Baudrillard’s concept of hyperreality and the simulacrum, the urban dystopias conjured into being by late-capitalism (explored, for instance, by Mike Davis in Evil paradises – 2007) are all sources of potentially gripping classroom materials. They also happen to engage with transdisciplinarity and unlock a keen sense of the uncanny. But are they apt? Shouldn’t we be white-washing the grim reality and hiding the awful truth from our students? My contention, along with that of Stengers (2015) and Haraway (2015a and b) is that Anthropocene appropriate curricula need to directly engage with the gritty history, philosophy and death-defying/life-denying science of industrialisation, capitalism, globalisation, as well as with local challenges such as xenophobia, domestic abuse, patriarchal structures, and HIV, etc. Most importantly, we need to supply students with a critical knowledge framework that enables them to appreciate how culture determines thoughts and actions in relation to self and others. We also need to teach about consumer passivity and the concept of ‘nature on demand’. We live in a world of dramatically escalating environmental changes where stability can no longer be taken for granted and the future is no longer guaranteed. Fisher (2009) warns that our students’ affective sensibility is entangled in this precariousness; it is a component of their contemporary ‘missing sense’.


A fundamental shift

A fundamental shift has occurred and no level of our reality construct ‒ from the pre-personal to the personal, the cultural, the economic, etc. ‒ is exempt from the onto-epistemological crisis induced by this displacement. Our students recognise or sense this ‘tectonic’ movement which has been called the Anthropocene; if not consciously then affectively. After all, as Fisher (2009, 53) notes, they are expected to cheerfully operate ‘amidst capitalism’s perpetual instability’. They find themselves in academic institutions and disciplines of knowledge that seem wholly complicit in the spectacle of ‘denial’ and ‘business as usual’; no wonder then that a lack of critical engagement is their default position (Fisher 2009, 54). Stengers (2015), as I have noted, writes that it would be both criminal and fatally unproductive to shelter those we teach from harsh realities. The Anthrobscene requires us to engage schizoanalytically and transversally with uncanny topics, to talk, without mincing our words, about ‘erosion, pollution, contamination, a monstrous accumulation of garbage, and of course a massive loss in biodiversity … [which] tell, and will go on telling [about humans] in a far away future measured in geological time’ (Stengers 2015, 134). Moreover, it requires us to accept and teach about the reality of ontological, epistemological and eco-social assemblages that we have thus far ignored, denied or taken for granted. Simply put, we can no longer afford to take the uncanny entanglements implied by critical posthuman and new materialist perspectives for granted when it’s become incontrovertible that the world (as we know it and have conceptualised it) is in extremis.

The overlapping of financial, ecological and social crises seem, in fact, to have coincided, as Sadie Plant (1992, 186) writes, with a postmodern spectacle of ‘petrifying circularity and stultification’ in higher-education pedagogy ‘from which there apparently seems to be no desirable recourse’. Our task as pedagogues is to address this pressing and fatal apathy by thinking and doing differently. As pedagogues we need to reaffirm and take seriously the goals of our profession; namely, to produce subjects who are critically aware and able to actively and creatively engage in the formulation of their own subjectivities. ‘The “long dark night at the end of history” has to be grasped as an enormous opportunity’, writes Fisher (2009, 80). As consumers of hyppereality and technological over-stimulation, our students (and ourselves) have an intimate understanding of schizophrenic mental states. Ironically, this proclivity for mental entanglements and dark technological pleasures has primed us for the ‘transversal contamination’ (or the entanglement of the disciplines) that Deleuze and Guattari and other critical posthuman and new materialist thinkers espouse. It has also primed us for a deep understanding of affect. The ‘affective disorders’ that we suffer from, writes Fisher, are forms of ‘captured discontent’, the symptoms of which ‘can and must be channeled outwards [and] directed’ towards building a knowledge of causes and conditions (2009, 80). As Stengers observes, we must do this ‘channeling’ by learning and teaching how ‘to pay due attention’ (2015, 137).

As I have already noted, it may be necessary to practice what Fisher (2009, 80) calls a ‘new ascesis’ by ‘force-feeding’ our students with literacy and academic rigour as necessary antidotes to the overstimulated mental torpor and critical disengagements of late capitalism. While exploiting their natural attraction for inter-connectivity via stimulating transversal topical materials, we need to encourage them to overcome their capitalist postlyxia by ensuring that they engage critically and intimately with prescribed materials (by debating, writing essays, reading texts, and through regular comprehension testing, etc.). In our courses and curricula we need to make schizoanalytical or transversal transdisciplinary connections, ‘to jump from one interval to another’, as Deleuze and Parnett (2007, 40) suggest. We should engage with challenging and entangled transdisciplinary topics (to venture examples from my course: ‘Where do we come from? What are we? Where are we going?’ and ‘Capitalism and extinction’, etc.). We also need to pay attention to Fisher’s argument (2009) that our students’ difficulties with reading and writing are not simply the result of inferior school education or problems with second/third language acquisition. Perhaps, as he suggests (2009, 60), their dys/postlexia is directly coupled with the postmodern problems of consumer mentality: the in-built conceptual laziness placed there by a capitalist desiring machine that has no need to produce critically thinking subjects.


CONCLUSION

Fostering a critical awareness of the confluence of the technoscientific, the cultural-historical and the environmental are the first necessary steps in realising the potentials of the posthuman and freeing ourselves from the Capitalocene state of bondage. Together these concepts can help us to create a stable anchor from which to engage more fully and pay closer attention to the affective relations that inform our changing human subjectivities. Knowledge and critical thinking skills are not, however, enough in themselves. We need to exorcise from ourselves and our students a poisoned and future-denying state of paralysis. ‘We know things are bad’, writes Fisher (2009, 21), ‘but feel helpless to do, say or think anything about it’. This is more than ‘a passive observation of an already existing state of affairs. It is a self-fulfilling prophecy’. Barad (2014, 168) might say that we find ourselves frozen in a state of ‘dicho-tomy’, unable to think or teach schizoanalytically/transversally, or, as she would put it, ‘diffractively’. We should therefore learn to pay due attention to the entanglements, uncanny symbioses and novel interconnections that mediate and intersperse between ourselves and the world. As speculative schizoanalytical explorers, we should find ourselves thawed from our complicit paralysis and enlivened by the radical promises of blurred boundaries. Posthumanism, new-materialism and the affective turn occupy an agitated edge (the boundary between ourselves and the world/cosmos) of entangled engagements. These science-fictional and speculative ways of looking and feeling offer exciting new possibilities of conceptualising and provide aesthetic antidotes to the affective and mental poisons of the Capitalocene/Anthrobscene. Along with other practitioners of shizoanalysis, we need to imagine and teach about the fantastic, the uncanny or the unimaginably alien as we recalibrate what it means to be human and how we might become and think differently. From a pedagogical perspective, fostering such posthuman manners of thinking and engaging are not mere idylls of fancy. They will become increasingly necessary if higher education is to keep abreast with the accelerated pace of Anthropocene developments and the reality of environmental (and possibly human) extinction.


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GAIA 2048—A ‘Glocal Agency in Anthropocene’: Cognitive and Institutional Change as ‘Legal Science Fiction’

Rostam J. Neuwirth 

Abstract

To assess a future scenario of the world without a WTO, the present chapter projects the reader into the distant future of the year 2048 by which time the global community is aiming to establish GAIA, the so-called “Glocal Agency in Anthropocene”. GAIA is designed as the first truly integrated global institution with a universal character with the aim to tackle the complex and multiversal governance challenges of humanity and the planet as a whole. This chapter marks both a legally and a scientifically fictitious account of the years from 2020 until 2048, from a dystopian and a utopian perspective, with the aim of highlighting the importance of cognition for legal and institutional change. The need for cognitive change is driven by changes in the environment, and by the challenges resulting from a perceived acceleration of the pace of change and the unprecedented levels of technological complexity. Both change and complexity increase the relevance of cognition, as laws and policies adopted in one area are more likely to affect their success or failure and that of the global governance system as a whole. Thus, this chapter predicts that the foremost necessity for law in the future is to build on novel and enhanced modes of human cognition to deal better with complexity and rapid change.

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Introduction

Why do we remember the past and not the future?1

We are writing at the end of the year 2048, and marking a period of efforts towards the establishment of a new and comprehensive global governance mechanism, known, for short, as “GAIA 2048”. GAIA stands for “Glocal Agency in Anthropocene”, and describes a project for a novel institutional framework to be set up with the objective of tackling humanity’s most urgent problems and glocally governing and sustainably developing human affairs in the future.

The future is what matters the most right now, as the world is hoping to recover from the devastating effects of the time period known as the “Digital Dark Age”. This is the era from 2030 until 2045 when—as the result of an Internet blackout (outage)—all prior digital resources, including records and archives, became inaccessible and, because of the wide prevalence of the Internet of Things (IOT), the same happened to most related technical applications and utilities.2 In short, this dark period wiped out all digitally or electronically stored data. As a consequence, it not only paralysed all technical facilities and caused millions of casualties, but also led to a collective loss of humanity’s memory, which, furthermore, caused a loss of identity. Many still speculate about what triggered the meltdown of the former information society based on the Internet, with the suggested causes ranging from scientific, economic, and political to cognitive and, notably, legal reasons.

For instance, scientific explanations range from a cyberattack using malware to a nuclear blackout caused by the detonation of an atomic warhead in outer space, an accident at CERN creating a black hole in Geneva following a malfunction of the Large Hadron Collider II, or a failure of the 5G network in combination with a data overload on the World Wide Web caused by states’ geopolitical struggles and the monopolistic tendencies of various tech giants. Other people invoke politico-economic explanations, simply citing the second global financial crisis of 2029, which was caused by trade and currency wars that, inter alia, eroded the finances needed for the maintenance of the Internet’s sophisticated infrastructure. Environmental factors are also often named, such as floods and rising sea levels, increased volcanic activity and earthquakes, combined with heatwaves and global pandemics, which disrupted or paralysed the energy supply by damaging its essential facilities.

Politics also played a role, as populism and racism increased, further fragmenting society into ever smaller units, down to its most vulnerable minority, the individual. Constitutional democracies came under threat from changes that were, at first, undetectably small but that eventually combined and posed a serious threat. In legal circles, the fragmentation of international law, the rise of norm conflicts due to bad regulation, overregulation and the automation that took over several fields of law3 are mentioned as the prime causes of the inability of humanity to halt the dangers of the conditions it had created for itself. It again became obvious that the rule of law needed not just legal texts but also stable institutional guarantors at both the national and the global levels.4

It is more likely that the blackout was due to a combination of interrelated factors in an environment characterized by an increasing complexity and ever faster pace of change. Since time immemorial, humanity has struggled with change or, notably, with its perception of change, since this perception may itself have been subject to change.5 However, since the last millennium many observers have noted an apparent effect of an acceleration of change or so-called “time shrinking”.6 This trend for change to accelerate started to pose a major threat to lawmakers and policymakers and, in particular, to law, as it became more difficult to “preserve its integrity over time, while managing to address the newly emerging circumstances that continually arise throughout our history”.7 Another threat to law came from unprecedented levels of technological innovation, which culminated in a situation in which the regulation of specific industries and technologies, such as those of artificial intelligence, nanotechnology, big data and genetics, failed to find a successful balance between their unknown risks and their expected benefits. In short, excessive levels of specialization, not met by an adequate general understanding, led technological progress to spin out of control.8

Thus, by the year 2020 the international legal order had witnessed the disastrous effects of a gradual loss of control caused by decades of neglecting first subtle and later obvious signs of multiple law and policy failures. These policy failures culminated in the failed attempts to reform the most important international institutions, the United Nations (UN) and the World Trade Organization (WTO), in a holistic and comprehensive manner. There was a failure to bridge the rift that was caused when the International Trade Organization (ITO) did not materialize; the ITO would have complemented the institutional balance between the three Bretton Woods sisters, the ITO, the IMF and the World Bank. In other words, the institutional failure of the ITO to materialize also meant that greater coherence, or to integrate trade and non-trade concerns, was renounced as an ideal for global governance. The separation between the UN on the one hand and the GATT on the other, can also be regarded as a further strong manifestation of a dualistic mode of thinking based on binary logic. Most of all, it was the beginning of a failure of cognitive modes of thinking to keep pace with technological changes in the context so as to provide a stable and coherent global institutional framework for the governance of global affairs.

Historically, the GATT 1947 was characterised as having found “itself without an inadequate legal and constitutional base and required to fill a vacuum created by the failure of the ITO”.9 The situation also meant that attempts to reconcile trade and non-trade concerns in both substantive and institutional terms was postponed to a distant day. This delay later led to the emergence of the “trade linkage debate”, by which different pairs of “trade and …” problems were supposed to be reconciled. Lacking their reconciliation, criticism of the WTO also became louder and culminated in the protests accompanying the 1999 Seattle WTO Ministerial Conference.10 Since then, the failure to address non-trade concerns and to achieve greater policy coherence continued and provided further momentum to the procedural crisis affecting the WTO Dispute Settlement Body. In sum, a lack of political will as much as outdated cognitive modes framed by dualistic thinking led to the law being inadequate to meet the institutional and substantive challenges.

To exemplify the impact of cognition on whether the law meets the demands put upon it, the present chapter divides the time between the year 2020 and 2048 into two opposite scenarios. First, Sect. 1 traces the lost years by drawing up a dystopian scenario, in which cognition remained largely static and dualistic, such that changes did not keep pace with the speed of technological and scientific innovation. Section 2 is more utopian, in the sense that it relies on a newly acquired cognitive mode of thinking as exemplified by synaesthesia, which not only allows for the development of actions as causes of change but also includes a review and evaluation of the consequences. The conclusion finds that an entirely new mode of cognition, triggered by linguistic changes that are reflected in a recent rise of oxymora and paradoxes, opens a new perspective on how lawyers can help to both predict and shape the future.

Dystopian Scenario: Specialization and ‘Fragmented We Fail’

In the world of theory, there are many dichotomies. In the real world, there are many divisions and divides. In the world of power, all too often, these divisions, divides, and dichotomies serve to maintain and reinforce existing imbalanced and skewed power relations between individuals, communities, governments, and nation-states. In the world of power, it is indeed divide and rule.11

In attempts to describe the evolution of the multilateral trading regime from 1995 until 2048, so-called “digital historians” have argued that 11 December 2019 marked the decisive moment and unofficial date of the decline of the World Trade Organization. Although aggressive regionalism, unilateral measures and resulting trade wars as well as inertia in addressing the trade linkage debate and interinstitutional linkages between the WTO and the UN had been eroding the multilateral trading regime for some time before, it was on that day that the WTO’s dispute settlement system became dysfunctional following the expiration of the terms of two of the three remaining members of the Appellate Body (AB).12 This left the AB with fewer than the three members required by Art. 17.1 DSU to serve on appeal cases.

As with many international organizations, nation states and other legal constructs before it, the official decline of the WTO and the multilateral trading regime as a whole started slowly and then ended abruptly. The decline was probably the result of a chain of missed opportunities for the reform and adaptation of the relevant system to changes in the context, which notably saw a strong trend towards greater convergence of various industries, technologies and products.13 This convergence further increased the need for the consideration of non-trade concerns and greater policy coherence. For some time, the system lingered on and ministerial conferences were merely held without achieving tangible results, continuing the deplorable tradition that began with the launch of the Doha Development Round in 2001. Most WTO members engaged in either a relapse into unilateral measures adopted at the domestic level or a rat race to join numerous regional trade agreements. However, in both cases, the most important challenges faced at that time, in the form of institutional gaps, regulatory fragmentation and overregulation, were not tackled, either nationally or regionally, let alone globally. Numerous calls and suggestions for institutional reform to achieve greater policy coherence, under the aegis of the so-called “trade linkage debate” discussing various “trade and … problems” or how to better link trade with non-trade issues, were ignored.14 In this regard, more importantly, the cognitive and conceptual dimension of trade policy was not duly considered, as “transformational change in the institutions and politics of international trade” were found to go “hand in hand with cognitive change” as Andrew T. F. Lang wrote.15 He also found a nexus between cognitive change and institutional reform being linked to the criticism of the WTO and notably the failure to address the trade linkage debate.16

As a result, from this time on, the international system, or, more accurately, the remaining “international systemic chaos”,17 was described as having moved “away from an assembly of distinct, territorial, sovereign, legally equal states toward different, more hierarchical, and in many ways more complicated structures”.18 Even though an attempt was launched in 2006 to reform the United Nations Organization in order to streamline the coordination of its many specialized organizations and to enhance the coherence of global policymaking by “delivering as one”,19 the management of this reform eventually proved to be an oxymoron before it failed altogether.20 For a long time, the UN’s work in its core areas, from development to the environment, was described as fragmented, and its inefficient governance structure contributed to “policy incoherence, duplication and operational ineffectiveness across the system”.21

What could be framed as a “trade and technology” problem, the earlier US–China trade disputes (2017–2020), also caused frictions in the innovation of new technologies and especially in the realm of telecommunication and information technologies.22 These frictions led to a further fragmentation of the Internet and the market for information and communication technologies (ICT). Russia initiated the creation of an alternate web, which was later also used by the remaining BRICS countries, with other countries following suit. Moreover, it was common for the governance gaps and frequent legal inconsistencies between the various fragments of laws governing international trade and commerce to be abused by artificial intelligence and unregulated algorithms, those lacking a kind of lex algoritmica, meaning that global business generally operated in a “black box” inaccessible to consumers and lawmakers.23

From a commercial perspective, the “world wide web” (www), which was intended to become a “wireless world wide web” (wwww) by virtue of the transition to the 5G network, became further fragmented by national and regional firewalls as well as restrictive measures known as geolocation measures.24 Other conflicts, in the form of regulatory paradoxes framed as dichotomies, such as those of “goods versus services”,25 “free trade in data versus data localization”,26 or “regulatory fragmentation versus technological convergence”,27 were also ignored.

In the same way, in other sectors covered by the GATT, GATS and TRIPS agreements, the multilateral trading rules were further eroded by trade disputes in which different claims were met by defences made on the basis of national security concerns.28 Known as the “trade and security” problem, questions about the self-judging nature of the security exceptions widened the institutional gap opened by the split between the UN system and the GATT/WTO system caused by the failure of the International Trade Organization (ITO) to materialize. This institutional rift had, since 1948, left the world with a conflict of norms in the form of a “catch XXI” or “trade and security” dilemma.29 After the WTO ruling in Russia – Measures in Transit in 2019, in which the panel held that it had jurisdiction to determine whether the requirements of Article XXI of the GATT 1994 were satisfied,30 other countries simply refused to respond to requests for consultations and boycotted the relevant meetings.31 In the end, the invocation of the security exceptions further eroded belief in the WTO and accelerated its demise.

The broader conditions in the global economy also grew dimmer and were closely related to the “trade and energy” problem. From as early as 2005, the tipping point in the production of oil was reached, meaning that conventional crude oil production was not rising to match increasing demand.32 The “all-oil peak” meant that, after decades of controversy over its arrival, there was a drastic dampening in economic growth and, actually, the inauguration of an era of global depression.33 Notably, for oil-producing and other resource-rich countries, the so-called “paradox of plenty” aggravated, and the ensuing economic disaster also led to, the collapse of their constitutional system, and also triggered new waves of political violence. Since human civilization was a sensitive “complex adaptive system”, other countries too, and the globe as a whole, also were drawn into a downward spiral of economic recession and political instability.34 Institutionally, the proliferation and fragmentation of energy organizations and the failure to address the “global energy governance gap” by reforming existing energy agencies or creating a global energy agency, further contributed to the resulting disaster.35

The complexity of the global economy could also be seen in the connection between trade, the environment and energy. In parallel, numerous efforts towards achieving greater sustainability in economic development based on renewable energies were also unable to offset the devastating effects of the disruptive consequences of the “all-oil peak” and the ensuing global energy crisis on economies and societies around the world. The result was a global energy crisis in 2033 that disrupted most global trade in both goods and services and caused stock crashes through inflationary pressures, and later accelerated the eventual collapse of the international monetary system as it had done during the 1973 oil crisis. Renewable energies were also incapable of averting the crisis, even though the impact of the 2015 Paris Agreement, adopted with the objective of responding to the threat of climate change, had no negative effect on the global economy or on countries’ welfare gains. Because of the absence of a coherent global regulatory framework, renewable energies remained expensive and investments often did not materialize. In this context, it was also a failure when the WTO membership addressed the “trade and environment” problem by, inter alia, reforming the WTO subsidies agreement, which resulted in various trade disputes challenging green policies.36

The lack of global competition rules, as a result of the abandonment of a project in 2004 that was one of four “Singapore issues”,37 led to the emergence of various multinational tech giants, which widely abused their dominant positions, explored tax loopholes, and competed unfairly in courts, patent offices and markets. They were also crucial in meddling in elections and were accused of undermining democratic institutions.38 No efficient dispute settlement system under the multilateral trading regime, and a lack of legal standing for private parties, both natural and legal persons, in domestic or supranational courts caused further havoc and greater inequality among global citizens. As early as 2017, inequality was reported to be standing at unprecedented levels, and it was claimed that “just eight men own the same wealth as the poorest half of the world”.39 These inequalities, dividing societies around the world, not only perpetuated themselves but even increased, with devastating effects on the global economy and the environment.

Another aspect of inequality was found in the “trade and development” link, another complex and cross-cutting “trade and …” problem. Cutting a long story short, the development discourse continued along the “developing versus developed country” dichotomy, despite calls to the contrary and even its abandonment by the World Bank in 2016.40 Even though the definition of “official development assistance” (ODA) evolved, it continued to be understood as resource flows from developed to developing countries.41 With the mindset unchanged, the language use of “developed-developing countries” also remained the same. As a result, the US and the EU continued, on the one hand, to subsidize their agricultural producers and to reap excessive benefits from royalties on various patented and copyrighted products, while on the other, they kept granting support through official development assistance programs to a large number of developing countries. This practice continued to impede the development of local industries in the targeted countries.42 Moreover, the uncertainty surrounding the meaning of “development status” further eroded the WTO’s status after the US began to challenge it in 2019.43

At the same time, the trade and development problem was closely tied to the “trade and finance” problem.44 Generally, the trade and finance link suffered from the failure of the ITO mentioned above, and the absence of a coherent framework for both trade and finance became manifest in the problem of so-called “currency manipulation”, that is, the depreciation of a country’s currency relative to other currencies so as to develop a large global and bilateral trade surplus.45 Despite the three organizations, the WTO, the IMF and the World Bank, having pledged to enhance their policy coherence, their inter-institutional dialogues did not yield tangible results and the use of policy coherence was criticized instead as a way to introduce policy conformance.46

Put briefly, the “trade and finance issue” also remained unsolved, and the two respective regulatory regimes of trade and of finance continued to evolve side by side in dramatically different directions in spite of being mutually interdependent systems.47 This had a serious impact on the world as the regulatory gap between them grew even more intense while the technological reality saw them increasingly converge notably with the emergence of the blockchain technology that underlies cryptocurrencies. Cryptocurrencies, from Bitcoin to Altcoin, proliferated and gradually disrupted business and financial services as well as the global economy.48 This meant that, in parallel to the third currency war between the world currencies (the dollar, the euro and the yuan), which began in 2010,49 a digital currency war also began to be waged. In this digital currency war, the traditional world currencies fought against emerging digital currencies backed both by state and non-state actors. The ensuing chaos of currency wars brought about a loss of state control over financial markets and a rise of a global underground economy thriving on tax evasion and criminal activities.50 It all culminated in a collapse of global trade and finance and ended with the second global financial crisis of the twenty-first century, which began on “black Wednesday” of 24 October 2029.

Together with military conflicts, global health pandemics, like the large-scale outbreak of the novel coronavirus (nCoV) infectious disease, and various natural disasters, like large scales rainforest wildfires and bushfires, caused by climate change and other anthropogenic factors,51 the total disruption of the global economy created a dangerous dynamic, causing a severe migratory wave52 that increased the number of forcibly displaced people from about 70 million people in 2018 to 1.4 billion less than 15 years later.53 The crisis of migratory flows was aggravated by national governments and courts, who denied the affected persons the status of climate refugees.54 At the same time, after an erosion of the rule of law in the majority of countries around the world, ever more restrictive national policies regarding citizenship in general, and dual citizenship in particular, also increased the number of stateless persons, who were thus deprived of all fundamental rights within and across state borders.55

The European Union, paralysed by endless Brexit debates and the United Kingdom’s final exit from the EU on 31 January 2020, made little progress in reforming its institutions, the single market, the single currency or its taxation system. On the contrary, past achievements in the four freedoms were scaled down as the result of nationalist policies in many member states. The EU’s so-called “Luxembourg Treaty”, negotiated under the 2029 EU Presidency of Luxembourg, added nothing that substantively remedied the lost opportunity of creating a constitution for Europe in 2001. The EU’s failure to become the world’s most competitive market (the Lisbon Strategy) extended the lost decade of the EU, which began in 2000, when, to a lost near-half century.56

Many more regional integration projects worldwide also stagnated. For instance, the BRICS, representing 42% of the world’s population in 2014 and initially set up as a “cooperation and dialogue forum” between Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa in order to defy differences and make a difference in global governance, saw no progress, such as by seeking greater policy coherence based on more closely coordinating institutionalizing their cooperation.57 Similarly, the positive effects on infrastructure development based on the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), initiated by the Chinese government in 2013, were largely neutralized by opposition from the US and several European countries. The African Union also failed to prevent the food security crisis that hit the African continent in 203058 and that pushed the achievement of the objectives enshrined in Agenda 2063 into an even more distant future.59

In sum, despite the emergence of a creative economy, which was initially fostered by the potential of new and innovative technologies, the 2015 Sustainable Development Goals were still not realized by 2030. Across the globe, political disagreements prevented action for greater regulatory harmonization, while centrifugal forces and fragmentation intensified. Legally, a patchwork of isolated areas of law continued to grow, as did the number of regional trade agreements, which were violated or withdrawn from faster than they were negotiated. Put simply, the so-called “global governance paradox”, or the logical loop that a global platform was needed in order to create a global platform, proved a problem that was too difficult to tackle in conceptual and cognitive terms. With no consistent global legal order, fragmentation prevailed and led to the aggravation of the negative effects of “trade and …” problems on global peace and welfare.

Utopian Scenario: Synaesthesia and ‘United We Sense’

The limits of my language mean the limits of my world.60

In 2048, historians are still pondering the reasons for the collapse of the WTO. Some attribute it to isolationist US trade policies and the political turmoil around Brexit, while others tend to focus on the rise of first Asian and subsequently African countries. However, a different view identifies this failure as the beginning of the end of “end of … stories”61 or a drastic paradigm shift in cognition. Cognition had reached a tipping point in human evolution following two centuries of rapid technological innovations, which “shaped consciousness directly”.62

Linguistic changes also confirmed this cognitive shift, mostly through the rise of essentially oxymoronic concepts.63 As a result of these external factors, epigeneticists found biological and cognitive changes occurring in parallel. New organs of cognition hence emerged, as humans were evolving biologically and consciously. As a visible result, even by 2025 97% of new-born children displayed conditions of synaesthesia, i.e. the ability to better connect stimuli received from different sensory organs, which improved the skills to foresee developments and solve complex problems as well as enhanced their abilities of abstract thought.64

Related changes in educational policies were implemented, with the goal of creating a “world brain”, or “an enhanced educational system through the whole body of mankind”, designed to “replace our multitude of uncoordinated ganglia, our powerless miscellany of universities, research institutions, literatures with a purpose, national educational systems and the like”.65 This goal was to be achieved by fostering oxymoronic learning methods and giving training in both bivalent and polyvalent logic, complemented by training in multilingualism and oxymoronic thinking.

For the trade and health link, the novel coronavirus (nCoV) pandemic underscored once more the strong links between international trade, public healthcare and the global economy. As a result, the global healthcare system was integrated with a future trading system and backed by a consistent set of global innovation rules consisting of competition rules, intellectual property laws and fiscal incentives, which prevented price discrimination in pharmaceutical products and secured global access to affordable medicines. Additionally, universal healthcare was provided freely by a combination of measures that combined both traditional and conventional medicines.66 Based on further changes in perception, such as through the development of technologies for the visualization of auras,67 medical diagnosis improved and conventional, traditional and alternative medicines as well as mental health strategies were all integrated into a coherent set of laws and policies. Further changes in healthcare were influenced by discoveries in so-called “life after life studies”, which transcended the life–death dichotomy as the result of a greater awareness of the missing link in a globally coherent health policy.68 Research on near-death experiences scientifically confirmed popular and religious beliefs about life after life.69

Overall, a new cognitive mindset emerged in parallel with technical tools, leading to a new conception of the areas of economics, politics and law. For instance, the global economy became more sustainable, based on the spirit of “degrowth”, which rejected the illusion of endless economic growth by advocating for a “democratically-led shrinking of production and consumption with the aim of achieving social justice and ecological sustainability”.70 At the same time, new and cleaner energy resources were derived from nuclear fusion developed by the ITER project, helping to decarbonize the world’s energy system.71 Various new and renewable energies complemented this.72

Since a G20 initiative formulated in 2019, the global community embraced an ambitious tax agenda to improve cooperation and transparency on the basis of a strategy for a global taxation system.73 This initiative originally included a global financial transaction tax to fund the new global governance system.74 It later included a digital tax on the world’s tech giants, which levied taxes in the places where the goods and services were sold rather than the places where the company was based. It also introduced a global minimum tax rate to prevent a company from shifting its sales to a country with lower taxes. Finally, a robotic tax, aided by the creation of a single global cryptocurrency (SGCC),75 covered all activities based on automation to compensate for the disruptive effects of automation on the global labour market.76 Together, these measures helped to contain the outbreak of currency wars and related trade/finance disputes.77 On the other hand, the changes in the taxation system also helped to reverse the former trend of higher income taxes as opposed to lower corporate taxes. The new system achieved an optimal balance, with around 5% income tax, 25% corporate tax (including on digital activities) and 35% robotic tax, as measures towards greater global tax justice.78 These and other fiscal policies were introduced in coherence with other incentives to end the poverty trap.79

The cognitive shift also remodelled the international multilevel governance system towards a “glocal” and holarchic system in which local, largely self-governing, entities were complemented by various regional regimes often organized into mega-regional blocks, with those of an inclusive global system enshrined in the GAIA Charter of 2048. Holarchy here means a system in which various self-regulating entities function as autonomous wholes in supra-ordination to their parts but, at the same time, also as dependent parts in subordination to controls on higher levels their local environment.80 The foundation is a polyvalent logic by which the links between stakeholders at different levels are supported by a dynamic system of subsidiarity and an open method of coordination.81 It is based on a set of different criteria that the best possible level of regulation is determined without any prior bias towards either the local or the global level of governance. The same method is also applied to territorial questions, such as national sovereignty is no longer fixed but where territorial boundaries are drawn based on a similar set of criteria. Thus, like in the quantum world, different political entities, and even national governments’ competences, can overlap and even be superimposed without being perceived in conflict.

Changes in cognition facilitated the adoption of the GAIA 2048 Charter, as the global community finally found the “common language”82 to tackle the “global governance paradox” successfully. The paradox was that, in order to create a global legal order, the world community needed a global governance platform that had not previously existed, confirming that linguistic and cognitive changes are quintessential to institutional change.

Structurally, the GAIA 2048 was based on an institutional setting in which every “trade and …” problem was coordinated by a “coherence committee”, with the competence to avoid conflict between different policy goals. The functioning of the institutional framework was aided by an e-governance system, which used intelligent algorithms to consolidate redundant norms and detect incoherent measures. However, artificial intelligence was considered not only to be hype but also to be an oxymoron, and, in relation to law and policy, artificial intelligence measures were strictly bound by the requirement inherited from the former EU General Data Protection Regulation that they could not be implemented and enforced “without any human intervention”.83

In substantive terms, existing sources of global law were codified into a single legal document, the GAIA Code, a global constitutional text that reduced the previous disarray of international laws. In this way, former conflicts between norms that arose because of dichotomies that were too simplistic to account for real complexity, be it between electronic and traditional modes of consumption of goods (GATT) and services (GATS), between IP law and competition law, or between international trade law and various subfields of general public international law in the name of “self-contained regimes”, were no longer unavoidable and irresolvable.84 In this context, global competition rules were integrated and enhanced so as to not only guarantee the sustainable economic development of the global market but also “solve social problems ranging from unemployment to income inequality and indeed to improve the functioning of democracy itself”.85

Other necessary changes simply came with changes in cognition and understanding, and did not require a change in language as they occurred earlier when a higher court reconsidered its established case law. For instance, in the field of global economic law, the national treatment provisions of GATT Article III, GATS Article XVII and Article 3 of TRIPS were now no longer merely interpreted as prohibiting discrimination between domestic and imported goods or services but also as encompassing “all measures having an equivalent effect on consumers in covered markets”.86 This became necessary to cover personalized price discrimination made possible by the data economy.87 These cognitive changes, plus a seamless global wireless web, also ended the western failure of the territorial national state.88 As a result, the “four freedoms” related to the free movement of goods, services, persons and capital, became recognized as ubiquitous civil right and a global reality.89

The various systemic changes resulting from cognitive changes were supported by, and helped to establish, an effective and inclusive global dispute settlement mechanism, which recognized the right to bring an action and to be heard in court (locus standi) of not only international organizations, states and multinational corporations but also natural persons.90 It effectively aligned the former WTO Dispute Settlement system with investor–state arbitration.91 Both systems were elevated to a “world trade court” embedded within a fully-fledged global judicial body, the GAIA Tribunal, that was vested with various constitutional powers to sanction and enforce the rulings it issued.92 Overall, the new institutional design based on these cognitive changes was said to have helped to “improve and eventually overcome the perceived lack of legitimacy of international courts and tribunals in the eyes of the governments, the legal community and civil society”.93

Conclusion: ‘Dystopian Utopia’ or Oxymora to Predict the Future by Creating It

My project was retarded by laws of nature. The world was not prepared for it. It was too far ahead of time. But the same laws will prevail in the end and make it a triumphal success.94

A dystopian or a utopian future, does it matter? After all, from the “perspective of the brain, there’s a thin line between a good decision and a bad decision”.95 It seems, though, that what matters to everyone is the future, because the future is “where we are all going to spend the rest of our lives”.96 However, perhaps this must also not be the case as, paradoxically, most (or all) dichotomies have a limitation in that they not only trade accuracy for simplicity,97 but also provide an invisible barrier to a vision of the bigger picture. This is where subtle linguistic changes may gradually trigger cognitive changes and eventually bring in legal and institutional changes, in the same way as dripping water hollows out stone, even though the cognitive habits of binary or dualistic thinking are said to die hard.98 Easy or difficult, it is a source of encouragement for everyone, as we may, à la longue, be able to bring about the change we desire, given that institutional change is possible once a cognitive change has occurred.99

The recent rise in the number of oxymora and paradoxes, however, seems to indicate this “creative” possibility. For instance, various concepts implicitly reflecting the tensions between prediction and destiny within the confines of past and present, such as science fiction100 or free will,101 have been qualified as oxymora. In their context (and possibly in the context of all paradoxes), time therefore appears as the clue, or the key we need to find to unlock the limitations inherent in our current linear perception of time. The fact is that the grammar of many modern languages, conjugating verbs in the “present,” “past,” and “future” tenses, was said to not be “well-adapted for speaking about the real temporal structure of reality, which is more complex”.102 Various “nostalgic visionaries”, like Herbert G. Wells or Jules Verne, however, transcended the past–future dichotomy in their writings, thereby anticipating many future inventions.103 Lawyers, too, can act in this way, as their work is often similar to that of science fiction authors, given that they can help in translating fiction into legal fact104 or turning dreams into reality by combining “the law as it is” (lex lata) with “the law as it should be” (de lege ferenda) perspectives.105

For lawyers to achieve this creative goal and to synthesize the two competing scenarios of the future beyond the WTO outlined in this chapter, it will be necessary, first, to work actively towards a cognitive change. Applied to legal reasoning, it means to transcend an exclusively dualistic mode of reasoning, which means to solely rely on the “law of the excluded middle” (i.e. “Everything must either be or not be.”).106 Applied to the regulation of global trade, this kind of “either/or thinking” or that something either belongs to the sphere of trade or is classified as a “non-trade concern” must be complemented by the law of the included middle. The law of the included middle can be achieved through oxymoronic thinking by way of which, for instance, trade and non-trade concerns are not opposed to each other but where their apparent contradiction can be resolved at a higher level of reality or complexity.107

More concretely, lawyers must be able cognitively to transcend the iron law of binary logic by also being versatile in reasoning based on polyvalent logic—a kind of multivalued logic in which there can be more than two truth values.108 A good way to remind ourselves of this is given in the following quote: “laws may differ but they do not conflict: the only possible conflict is in the mind of the judge”.109 In this regard, legal education seems the best place to begin.110 Thus, addressing problems by legally expressing them solely using dichotomies is no longer apt to deal with their underlying complexity. It also means that a purely static approach should be complemented with a more dynamic one to ensure that laws are adopted in a way that embraces change ex ante and makes them fit for the future. In institutional terms, a more dynamic approach is also needed, as otherwise we merely observe their initial rise and subsequent demise.111 In this respect, discursive institutionalism provides an excellent complement, as it regards norms as “dynamic, intersubjective constructs rather than static structures”.112 Ultimately, it is submitted here that, based on this cognitive change, novel models of global institutions, like GAIA 2048, can emerge.

Second, the cognitive changes of polyvalent or oxymoronic thinking, when combined with new organs of perception as symbolized by synaesthesia, will enable another important insight, which lies in the realization that the best way to predict the future is by creating (and regulating) it. This insight puts the theory of a self-fulfilling prophecy into a new light, one which proves that theory and practice are intimately linked and that sociological predictions are “products of an era, co-determinants of what they assert”.113

When applied to humanity as a whole, predicting the future by creating it (and regulating it accordingly) means that if we plan something and act upon it coherently and persistently, it is more likely to happen, eventually. This, however, first requires a cognitive change in the understanding of humanity as a divided amalgam of different peoples or nations instead of an organic whole united in its diversity. Only then can an adequate global governance mechanism capable of putting the necessary global legal order into place be expected to be brought forth. In short, the global governance paradox and other apparent contradictions can only be successfully addressed by expanding our reasoning from bivalent to polyvalent modes of thinking, as reflected in synaesthesia or in new optimized ways to receive and channel information through our different senses or, in legal terms, different institutions.

Applied to the dichotomy of the past versus the future, a new cognitive mode may one day enable humans to recall the fundamental importance of the present, that is, the magical power of the present to rewrite both the world of yesterday and the world of tomorrow. By the same token, humans can then eventually use the same magic to control the outcome between the two apparently opposite scenarios, the dystopian and the utopian one. For now, the two scenarios outlined in this chapter cannot answer the questions of whether or not, in our perception, linear time exists, or whether or not we have free will or all fate (including the fate of the WTO) is already written in a comprehensive book of destiny. This chapter is equally unable to say whether a post-WTO legal order will be able to avoid global disaster and humanity’s as well as nature’s demise. However, the hope is that the chapter shows that the many “scientifically fictitious” developments described in both the dystopian and the utopian scenarios concur in essence or are—if at all—divided by a very thin line, one merely drawn in our minds. Nevertheless, this thin line determines how we will deal with the most urgent challenges in the Anthropocene, or at any given point in time (when no longer understood as the linear process from the past to the future), because it clearly proves that today we humans cannot say that “we did not know (about the dangers and inherent consequences of our actions)”. On the contrary, we can only say “we knew but did not care”.

Notes
  1. Rovelli (2018), p. 3.
  2. Petersen (2014), p. 283.
  3. Ashley (2017).
  4. Bacchus (2003), pp. 533–550.
  5. Wittmann (2016), p. 124.
  6. Ten Hoopen (1995), p. 577.
  7. Johnson (2007), p. 845.
  8. Harari (2017), p. 51.
  9. Jackson (1969), p. 51.
  10. DiMatteo (2003), pp. 95 and 102.
  11. Dias (2007), p. 278.
  12. Lo et al. (2020).
  13. Neuwirth (2015), p. 31.
  14. Pauwelyn (2005), pp. 329–346.
  15. Lang (2007), p. 529.
  16. Lang (2007), p. 523.
  17. Hopkins and Wallerstein (1996), p. 226.
  18. Van Creveld (1999), p. vii.
  19. United Nations High Level Panel on Coherence (2006) Delivering as One. G.A. A/61/583 (9 November 2006).
  20. Baumann (2016), pp. 461–472.
  21. United Nations High Level Panel on Coherence (2006) Delivering as One. G.A. A/61/583 (9 November 2006), p. 10.
  22. Lawrence (2018), pp. 62–82.
  23. Pasquale (2015).
  24. Yu (2019), pp. 503–529.
  25. Smith and Woods (2005), pp. 463–510.
  26. Burri (2017), pp. 65–132.
  27. Neuwirth (2015), pp. 21–50.
  28. Request for the Establishment of a Panel by Qatar, United Arab Emirates – Measures Relating to Trade in Goods and Services, and Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights, para. 1, WT/DS526/2 (12 Oct. 2017).
  29. Neuwirth and Svetlicinii (2015b), p. 892.
  30. WTO Panel Report, Russia – Measures Concerning Traffic in Transit, WT/DS512/R (5 April 2019).
  31. Requests for consultations and establishment of a panel by Qatar, Saudi Arabia — Measures concerning the Protection of Intellectual Property Rights, WT/DS567/1 (4 October 2018) and WT/DS567/3 (19 November 2018).
  32. Murray and King (2012), pp. 433–435.
  33. Hall and Klitgaard (2018), p. 109.
  34. Ahmed (2017).
  35. Downie (2015), p. 475.
  36. Cosbey and Mavroidis (2014), pp. 11–47.
  37. Demedts (2015), pp. 415–416.
  38. Ginsburg and Huq (2018), p. 198.
  39. An Economy for the 99%. OXFAM Briefing Paper, January 2017. https://www-cdn.oxfam.org/s3fs-public/file_attachments/bp-economy-for-99-percent-160117-en.pdf.
  40. Neuwirth (2016), pp. 911–925.
  41. Hynes and Scott (2013).
  42. Moyo (2009), pp. 52–53.
  43. WTO General Council, An Undifferentiated WTO: Self-Declared Development Status Risks Institutional Irrelevance (Communication from the United States), WT/GC/W/757 (16 January 2019).
  44. Thomas (2000), pp. 1249–1278.
  45. Staiger and Sykes (2010), pp. 583–627.
  46. Grabel (2007), pp. 335–341.
  47. Gadbaw (2010), p. 552.
  48. Tapscott and Tapscott (2018).
  49. Rickards (2011), p. 98.
  50. Rogoff K (2019) The High Stakes of the Coming Digital Currency War. Project Syndicate. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/global-battle-for-digital-currency-supremacy-by-kenneth-rogoff-2019-11.
  51. Reuveny (2007), pp. 656–673.
  52. Beets and Willekens (2009).
  53. UNHCR (2019).
  54. Berchin et al. (2017), pp. 147–150.
  55. Weissbrodt and Collins (2006), pp. 245–276.
  56. Neuwirth (2020), p. 51.
  57. Neuwirth et al. (2017) and Neuwirth and Svetlicinii (2019).
  58. Onyutha (2018), pp. 1203–1219.
  59. African Union (2017) Progress Report on the Implementation of Agenda 2063 First Ten-Year Implementation Plan. Available at: https://archives.au.int/handle/123456789/2618.
  60. Wittgenstein (1960), p. 149 (5.6).
  61. Neuwirth (2019b), p. 15.
  62. Kern (1983), p. 1.
  63. Neuwirth (2018a), pp. 23, 52 and 243.
  64. Deroy and Spence (2013), pp. 1240–1253.
  65. Wells (1938), p. xvi.
  66. Neuwirth and Svetlicinii (2015a), pp. 330–366.
  67. See also Milán et al. (2012), pp. 258–268.
  68. Neuwirth (2018b), pp. 3–26.
  69. Flannelly et al. (2012), pp. 651–662.
  70. D’Alisa et al. (2015).
  71. Fiore (2006), pp. 3334–3341.
  72. Ongena (2018), pp. 114–432.
  73. G20 (2019) Ministerial Statement on Trade and Digital Economy. http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2019/june/tradoc_157920.pdf.
  74. Tobin (1978), pp. 153–159.
  75. Ahmed (2018), pp. 697–740.
  76. Abbott and Bogenschneider (2018), pp. 145–175.
  77. Yi-Lin-Forrest et al. (2018), p. 567.
  78. Brock and Pogge (2014), pp. 1–15.
  79. Thang Dao and Edenhofer (2018), pp. 253–273.
  80. Koestler (1967), pp. 102–103.
  81. Neuwirth (2020), p. 51.
  82. Halpin and Roeben (2009), p. 6.
  83. Art. 22 Regulation (EU) 2016/679, O.J. L 119/1 (4 May 2016).
  84. Jeutner (2017).
  85. Wright et al. (2019), p. 294.
  86. Neuwirth (2015), pp. 21–50.
  87. Townley et al. (2017), pp. 683–748.
  88. Strange (1999), p. 345.
  89. Nett (1971), pp. 212–227.
  90. Schwartmann (2005).
  91. Li (2018), pp. 189–232.
  92. Cottier (2015), pp. 12–14.
  93. Dimitropoulos (2018), p. 569.
  94. Tesla (2016), p. 46.
  95. Lehrer (2009), p. xiv.
  96. Rescher (1998), p. 1.
  97. Kosko (1993), p. 21.
  98. Segal (2008), p. 101.
  99. Lang (2007), p. 529.
  100. Csicsery-Ronay Jr. (2008), p. 8 (“As its name implies, science fiction is an oxymoron.”).
  101. Crewe (2008), p. 23.
  102. Rovelli (2018), p. 111.
  103. Unwin (2000), pp. 18 and 31.
  104. Fuller (1967), p. 1.
  105. Virally (1981), p. 519.
  106. Russell (1912), p. 113.
  107. Brenner (2008), p. 4; Neuwirth (2018a), pp. 180–181.
  108. Jeutner (2017), p. 151; Neuwirth (2018a), pp. 234 and 255.
  109. Glenn (2017), p. 162.
  110. Neuwirth (2019a), p. 45.
  111. Chase-Dunn and Hall (1997).
  112. Schmidt (2008), p. 303.
  113. Neurath (1973), pp. 405–406.
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Neuwirth, R.J. (2020). GAIA 2048—A ‘Glocal Agency in Anthropocene’: Cognitive and Institutional Change as ‘Legal Science Fiction’. In: Lewis, M.K., Nakagawa, J., Neuwirth, R.J., Picker, C.B., Stoll, PT. (eds) A Post-WTO International Legal Order. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-45428-9_5

Transhumanism and the Anthropocene: human/nature/technology/”the future”

Rachel Bird

Original article here

Alvin Toffler, an American writer and Futurist, said that “the great growing engine of change [is] technology” (Toffler). However, Toffler did not specify exactly what it is that technology is changing – the environment? The economy? Humanity itself? In their book, The Techno-Human Condition, Braden Allenby and David Sarewitz argue that what technology is fundamentally changing is the very definition of what it means to be a human being. Although they focus primarily on relatively recent technologies that directly impact human bodies, I believe that all technological advances are changing our definition of “humanness,” in that they contribute to the creation of a new era of human impact on the environment: the Anthropocene. By viewing The Techno-Human Condition, its analysis of technological innovation, and the transhumanist movement as a whole, through the lens of the Anthropocene, it is possible to see how technologies, both those that directly interact with the body and those that do not, are changing our relationships with ourselves and our environment.
In The Techno-Human Condition, Allenby and Sarewitz analyze two separate “dialogues” concerning transhumanism and its role in today’s society (Allenby and Sarewitz 4). The first “dialogue” that they cover revolves around “the ways in which living humans use technologies to change themselves, for example, through replacement of worn-out knees and hips, or enhancement of cognitive function through pharmaceuticals” (Allenby and Sarewitz 4). This more literal definition revolves around technologies that noticeably influence the human body, and how the incorporation of non-organic, manufactured, and perhaps unnatural materials into the body changes out conceptions of who or what is a human. However, the authors focus much of their argument on the second dialogue. They contend that transhumanism is effectively a “cultural construct that considers the relations between humanness and social and technological change” (Allenby and Sarewitz 5). This broader definition allows for analysis of technologies that may not directly manipulate the human form, but nevertheless change our relationships with ourselves and our environment. However, even this definition cannot fully explain the transhumanist movement, and Allenby and Sarewitz acknowledge that it is challenging to fully encompass the goals and beliefs of a movement when that movement is continually adapting to the cultural context. The difficulty in articulating a particular definition for the transhumanist movement results in “definitional ambiguity,” which Allenby and Sarewitz resolve by concluding that more important that precisely outlining the parameters of the movement, is understanding the social implications of this ambiguity. According to Allenby and Sarewitz, “transhumanism turns out to be a conflicted vision offering a remarkable opportunity to question the grand frameworks of our time, most especially the Enlightenment focus on the individual, applied reason, and the democratic, rational modernity for which it forms the cultural and intellectual foundation” (Allenby and Sarewitz 11). In this interpretation, the problem in defining transhumanism lies not with the movement or its goals, but with the goals of the Enlightenment era itself.
According to Allenby and Sarewitz’s understanding, the Enlightenment era, which arguably preceded and perhaps even caused the Industrial Anthropocene, set the groundwork for our current cultural insistence on modernity and progress of the individual. The Techno-Human Condition describes how inventions ranging from the first railroads to modern methods of warfare are “simply an incremental continuation of one of the most fundamental trends of the Industrial Revolution” (Allenby and Sarewitz 156). For Allenby and Sarewitz, the impacts of this ncultural fascination with modernity can be broken down into the impacts of three increasingly comprehensive levels of technology. As Allenby and Sarewitz define it, Level I technology is the actual artifact or technological invention. In The Techno-Human Condition, Allenby and Sarewitz use the example of an airplane to illustrate this level. An airplane is a highly advanced technological feat, yet on its own it is a relatively simple piece of machinery which consumers expect to work safely and reliably. However, at Level II, this reliability starts to fail. Although airplanes themselves are relatively reliable at transporting passengers, tend to travel at a consistent speed, and crash remarkably rarely (despite widespread social obsession with and fears of airplane accidents) the actual time spent traveling by airplane can vary widely. However, rather than being a failure of the Level I technology, this unreliability is due to all of the factors involved in a Level II system. In The Techno-Human Condition, a Level II system is described as all of the hierarchies and systems that a Level I technology operates within. From the TSA security checkpoints, to airplane companies, baggage claim, weather delays, and overbooking, the systems that surround airplanes undermine their reliability. In this example, the Level II technology often prevents the Level I technology from doing its job. Level III technology moves from the tangible and easily definable elements of technology (the airplanes, as well as the airports, people, regulations, etc. that surround them) to a broader sense of the transformative role of airplanes and air travel. Level III technology revolves around the interactions of “Earth Systems,” which Allenby and Sarewitz define as “complex, constantly changing and adapting systems in which human, built, and natural elements interact in ways that produce emergent behaviors which may be difficult to perceive, much less understand and manage” (Allenby and Sarewitz 63). For example, airplanes have played a role in the globalization of terrorism, and the involvement of citizens in warfare and political conflict. This in turn has led to widespread fears of terrorist attacks, and increased racial and political tensions. The ability to relocate humanity to distant corners of the globe has also contributed to the spread of previously regional diseases such as AIDs and MERS, impacting the population and socioeconomic status of various groups. Furthermore, the environmental and ecological effects of the air transport industry have contributed to the changing ways humans view our relationship with and responsibility towards the earth. By extrapolating outwards from an individual technological innovation, Allenby and Sarewitz’s method of analyzing technology displays the far reaching effects that a single piece of technology can have on humanity as a whole.
​By outlining the effects of a single piece of technology on humanity, Allenby and Sarewitz hint at a larger context. Although The Techno-Human Condition focuses on how technologies will impact humanity’s conception of what is human, the book also explores how “technology-induced changes in human capabilities [might] affect the environment” (Allenby and Sarewitz x). Allenby and Sarewitz first introduce the connection between technology and human interactions with the environment in their first chapter: “Transhumanism is at best a local phenomenon in a far more pervasive reality… Indeed, many scientists are beginning to call this era the Anthropocene (meaning, roughly, the Age of Humans). The background to much discussion of transhumanism is a world in which human activity increasingly affects global systems, including the climate and the hydrological, carbon, and nitrogen cycles of the anthropogenic Earth” (Allenby and Sarewitz 10). The Anthropocene can be defined as the geological time during which human activity is considered to be the dominant influence on the environment, climate an ecology of the earth (Fleming). As Allenby and Sarewitz explained in their descriptions of the different levels of technology, most technologies eventually have a wide global impact at Level III. Although these impacts may be unintentional and difficult to fathom from a Level I understanding of a technological innovation, by generalizing the results of individual technologies, Allenby and Sarewitz illustrate the disparate impacts of seemingly localized innovations. In this sense, all technologies which impact the “Earth Systems” at Level III contribute to an anthropogenic understanding of humanity’s role in changing the earth, and nearly all technologies do reach this Level III status (Allenby and Sarewitz 63).
​In his text, The Climate of History: Four Theses, Dipesh Chakrabarty’s first thesis posits that anthropogenic explanations of climate change spell the collapse of age old humanist distinctions between natural and human history (Chakrabarty). However, as the distinctions between technology and the environment become less clear, anthropogenic explanations of Earth Systems also begin to collapse humanist distinctions between the futures of nature and humanity. When the impacts of technologies spiral out into Level III, the relationship between humans and nature becomes further enmeshed. Allenby and Sarewitz also acknowledge this point when they write that technological “enhancements cannot be viewed in isolation: they are changes in highly complex and adaptive systems” (Allenby and Sarewitz 28). By changing the complex systems of interactions between humans and their surroundings, technologies that impact our characterizations of what constitute human also impact our surroundings, and by definition, the impact of humans on our environment is the primary factor of the Anthropocene.

Works Cited
Allenby, Braden R., and Daniel R. Sarewitz. The Techno-Human Condition. Cambridge, MA: MIT, 2011. Print.
Chakrabarty, Dipesh. “The Climate of History: Four Theses.” CRIT INQUIRY Critical Inquiry 35.2 (2009): 197-222. Print.
Fleming, Jim. “Human/Nature in the Anthropocene.” ST197. Colby College, Waterville. 15 Sept. 2015. Lecture.
Toffler, Alvin. Future Shock. Toronto: Bantam, 1971. Print.

(Human-Inflected) Evolution in an Age of (Human-Induced) Extinction: Synthetic Biology Meets the Anthropocene

 

Josh Wodak

Institute Culture and Society, Western Sydney University, Sydney 2150, Australia

Humanities 20209(4), 126; https://doi.org/10.3390/h9040126

(This article belongs to the Section Transdisciplinary Humanities)

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Abstract

At the advent of the Anthropocene, life is being pushed to its limits the world over; we are currently living through the Sixth Mass Extinction to occur since multicellular life first emerged on the planet 570 million years ago. Evolutionary biologist E.O. Wilson sums up this push in the opening gambit of his book The Future of Life: “the race is now on between the techno-scientific forces that are destroying the living environment and those that can be harnessed to save it”. Contra Wilson, this paper addresses the paradox arising from proposals to harness “techno-scientific forces … to save” the “living environment” while other forces continue to destroy it. By framing human-inflected evolution in an age of human-induced extinction, this article asks what could or should conservation become, if ‘conserving’ imperiled species might now require genetic interventions of the synthetic kind. Drawing upon recent key markers of “the race”, this paper presents a notional conservation for the Anthropocene—namely, that such a conservation proposes active intervention not only into ecosystems but into evolution itself. And yet, such interventions can only be considered in the context of the planetary scale that is the Anthropocene-writ-large, as per the desertification of the Amazon or the collapse of Antarctic ice sheets, the spatial scale of the microbial world, and on the temporal scale of evolution. Viewed within such a context, this paper presents technoscientific conservation as paradoxically being both vital and futile, as well as timely and too late.

Keywords: cultural imaginaryenvironmental humanitiesenvironmental ethicssynthetic biologyconservation biologymicrobiologyAnthropocene evolution

1. Trendsetting

The journal in question is called Trends in Ecology and Evolution. The article in question is called ‘Is It Time for Synthetic Biodiversity Conservation?’. Given the current trends in ecology and evolution—from the climate crisis to the unfolding Sixth Extinction Event and beyond—the answer would appear to be self-evident. Yes, it is time. Time for what though? And when, where, what, how, and by whom? But, most importantly: why? Why is it that ‘conserving’ imperilled species might now require genetic interventions of the synthetic kind?

Probing whether it is actually “Time for Synthetic Biodiversity Conservation” poses a question which begets the thoroughly inhuman, nonhuman, and more-than-human domains at play. Namely, that any such proposed conservation must be considered in context, not only on the planetary scale that is the Anthropocene-writ-large, as per the desertification of the Amazon or the collapse of Antarctic ice sheets, but on the spatial scale of the microbial world, on the temporal scale of evolution, as well as within the affective domain of the cultural imaginary that underpins technoscientific conservation. Because, if it is indeed time for measures such as Synthetic Biology Conservation, then any notional conservation not cognisant of the vastly different scales at play is as anachronistic as Holocene worldviews of both humanity and the humanities.

This article offers a framework for any such conservation, through recourse to key moments in the nascent field of technoscientific conservation. These key moments illuminate the paradoxes facing conservation, by which it appears to be both vital and futile, as well as timely and too late. This means that the real question within the question of whether it is indeed “Time for Synthetic Biodiversity Conservation” is actually whether it is too late for conservation by any means at all.

In an age of human-induced extinction on a global scale, synthetic biology is human-inflected evolution, albeit on the microbial scale, and predominantly used for perpetuating so-called human civilisation rather than benefiting the more-than-human living world. The field aims to synthesise microbial organisms into ‘biofactories’, whereby their metabolism is directed towards making medicines, bioplastics, or biofuels. This applies to microbes that have already been co-opted for human benefit since the proverbial dawn of civilisation, such as yeast for beer and bread, as well as microbes with much more recent human entanglements, through to currently non-existent but seriously proposed new-to-nature microbes notionally designed to fulfil specific desired outcomes. While the field is highly diverse, it is unified by a promissory zeal, which maintains that successful synthesis will allow for the prodigious productivity of the microbial world to be harnessed into biomanufacturing (such as swapping biofuels for fossil fuels, or bioplastic for petroleum-derived plastic), producing lower biophysical impacts.

The seismic potential of this endeavour drives both industrial and academic research, and, while synthetic biology pursues human-induced evolution of affected microbes, this paper is concerned with proposed conservation usage rather than normative applications. The potential efficacy for such usage throws the manifold objections to normative synthetic biology into a different light if, and only if, it is actually “Time for Synthetic Biodiversity Conservation”. This raises a seemingly irresolvable tension: what if the potential efficacy of synthetic biology for conservation in turn serves to justify and legitimise the field-in-general, including its normative applications? If the “mission-oriented crisis discipline” (Soulé 1985, p. 11) that is conservation biology leverages technologies that are overwhelmingly intended for sustaining so-called human civilisation, does this then obviate the ethical and moral objections to the field?

The ‘Is It Time?’ article, published in February 2017, did not have to wait long for an answer to its question. In September that year, 18 Australian scientists published what amounted to a reply in Nature Ecology and Evolution: ‘New Interventions are Needed to Save Coral Reefs’, declaring “that emerging interventions such as assisted gene flow, assisted evolution, synthetic biology and habitat engineering, operating at the appropriate organismal or ecosystem levels, are essential to build reef resilience” (Anthony et al. 2017, p. 1420). The three-page article does not explicitly propose such interventions for the Great Barrier Reef in Australia, but the co-authors’ specialised focus on this, the largest living organism on earth, left little doubt as to which reefs they had in mind.

A week before ‘New Interventions’ was published, 43 scientists held a workshop at Heron Island Research Station on the Great Barrier Reef, on the subject of ‘Engineering Resilience.’ The scientists, many of whom had co-authored ‘Is It Time?’ or ‘New Interventions’, were meeting to explore the application of synthetic biology out of the microbial scale, and into much larger organisms. While the principal aim of this workshop was to explore the efficacy of increasing the thermal tolerance of coral toward rising ocean temperatures, engineering such resilience goes beyond coral, to diverse kinds of flora and fauna. Similar proposals exist for specific flora and fauna that are arguably amenable to genetic intervention, in cases where all other options appear insufficient in terms of already precipitously vulnerable populations (Coleman and Goold 2019Redford et al. 20132019).

Such proposals offer a riposte to The Future of Life as per evolutionary biologist E.O. Wilson in his book of this title. For Wilson, “the race is now on between the techno-scientific forces that are destroying the living environment and those that can be harnessed to save it” (Wilson 2003, p. xii). Wherein, scientists such as the authors of ‘Is it Time?’ or ‘New Interventions’ would counter: what if harnessing the techno-scientific forces of synthetic biology becomes part of the “race” between “destroying the living environment” and “forces … to save it”? This is because the ‘Is It Time?’ question mark heralds a larger endeavour across the sciences, one comprising radical proposed responses to the Anthropocene, all offered with seemingly innocuous question mark titles. Here, there are two articles of note: complex systems theorist Richard Solé’s ’Bioengineering the Biosphere?’, published in Ecological Complexity in 2015, and atmospheric chemist Paul Crutzen’s ‘Albedo Enhancement by Stratospheric Sulfur Injections: A Contribution to Resolve a Policy Dilemma?’ published in Climatic Change in 2006 (Solé 2015Crutzen 2006).

While these two articles refer, respectively, to intervening in the biosphere and the atmosphere, they share the interventionist ethos that underpins synthetic biology usage in conservation. Indeed, this ethos is problematically implied by the notion of the Anthropocene itself, at least for scientists of the ‘Engineering Resilience’ and ‘Is It Time?’ schools of thought. The genealogy of this ethos can be traced back to Paul Crutzen, who first coined and popularised the term ‘Anthropocene’ in 2000. In a 2011 blog co-authored with Christian Schwägerl, Crutzen brought this ethos together with its multi-scale domains:

Albeit clumsily, we are taking control of Nature’s realm, from climate to DNA… What we do now already affects the planet of the year 3000 or even 50,000. Changing the climate for millennia to come is just one aspect. By cutting down rainforests, moving mountains to access coal deposits and acidifying coral reefs, we fundamentally change the biology and the geology of the planet. While driving uncountable numbers of species to extinction, we create new life forms through gene technology, and, soon, through synthetic biology.

(Crutzen and Schwägerl 2011)

In this sense, when the 13 co-authors of ‘Is It Time?’ asked their probing question, they were effectively asking whether it is time to wield the radical and risky tools of technoscience against the onslaught of the Anthropocene. It is not Wilson’s Future of Life that is at stake here, since even if all such technoscientific conservation were to be attempted wholesale, all such interventions are inextricably entangled with inhuman, nonhuman, and more-than-human forcings, from viral irruptions to volcanic eruptions. What is at stake is rather any potential future at all for those lifeforms currently caught in a world undergoing biophysical change too rapid for them to adapt to, save by means of human-induced evolution that closes the gap by ‘Engineering Resilience’.

Humanistic responses to the Anthropocene should offer a critical lens through which we can observe how the cultural imaginary configures support or objection to such proposals. The perennial questions of the human condition do not disappear into the Anthropocene, but are rather ever-present and ever-pertinent to proposals to move from “albeit clumsily … taking control of Nature’s realm” to intentionally taking control in the not-too-distant future. At stake here is an ontological condition that undermines any simplistic grounds for supporting or objecting to such proposed synthetic biology usage. Because, if it is actually time to use synthetic biology for conservation, then ‘Trends in [Anthropocene] Ecology and Evolution’ will bear the mark of human intention, as a counterpoint to the current unintentional desecration caused by those “techno-scientific forces that are destroying the living environment”.

Intentional marks would be registered in the genome of species modified through synthetic biology, alongside the existing unintentional marks of human-induced desecration of the more-than-human living word. Such marks in the evolutionary record are analogous to the Anthropocene’s boundary layer, which will persist through the earth’s strata over geological time scales. This is simply because species subject to any human intervention that successfully confers evolutionary benefits will carry discrete genotypic marks in their human-inflected phylogenesis. Not in the domain of synthetic yeast co-opted into doing the bidding of so-called civilisation, but in the plants and animals bearing synthesised genes that have increased their capacity to adapt to prevailing biophysical conditions. In the instance of coral subjected to synthetic biology, their evolution would be ontologically unique, no longer described in journals with titles such as Nature Ecology and Evolution, but rather titles such as Anthropocene Ecology and Evolution.

2. Life Is But a Dream

Underpinning such dreams of redemption lies the cultural imaginary where more-than-human nature is coupled to technoscience. Regardless of whether or not it was born from sheer necessity born of the fierce urgency of the climate crisis, if this dream is to avoid becoming yet another waking nightmare, then there is much to be unpacked in terms of the culture that is willing the dream into being. Probing this dream is timely because, at present, it is a promise without any demonstrable means of deliverance or guarantee, set against the context of recent historic failures to deliver on prior promises for salvation through biofuels, bioplastic, bioremediation or other bio-based technofixes. As environmental philosopher Christopher Preston argues in his 2018 book The Synthetic Age: Outdesigning Evolution, Resurrecting Species, and Reengineering Our World:

The changes we are facing are much more significant than the familiar litany of human impacts such as climate change, species extinction, and toxic pollution. Earth is entering a period in which some of its most fundamental processes are being co-opted and redesigned by engineers. Synthetic biologists, climate engineers, and nanotechnologists are reaching deeply enough into the workings of nature to alter the very metabolism of the planet we inhabit. In so doing, they promise to create an entirely new, synthetic world.

(Preston 2018, dust jacket)

For many, including the authors of strident humanities and social sciences critiques, the “promise” of “an entirely new, synthetic world” is one that will ideally never be fulfilled. These authors object to synthetic biology because, as a promissory technofix, even if it could provide material guarantees against material loss, it would still leave unaddressed the profound inequities of race, gender, and class that have disproportionately fuelled the ecological crisis, and by which the differentiated Anthropos of the Anthropocene suffers its fate. These critiques from the humanities and social sciences call instead for the curbing of capitalism, consumerism, and related hegemonic socio-cultural inequities, rather than continuing to dream of technofix substitutions (Latour 2004Williams 1980Wodak 2019).

Evidently, an unassailable chasm separates those in favour versus those against a Synthetic Age. While vehemently disagreeing about intentional interventions into evolution via technoscience, both sides acknowledge that the other’s stance is based on a philosophy, or rather a worldview, for how to inhabit earth in the face of impending extinction of incalculable multitudes, including our own species. Those in favour largely pivot their support on the fact that attempts to curb capitalism, consumerism and the like have been an abject failure, as has conventional conservation, which will prove even less effective in the face of biophysical change that is only going to increase in velocity and intensity. Therefore, in this line of argument, the efficacy of synthetic biology must be researched as a potential response.

Those who object do so largely on the grounds that the history of scientific and technological developments is rife with well-intended remedies for a societal or ecological ailment, that instead resulted in the ailment persisting and flourishing, alongside whatever deleterious side-effects of the technoscience used to ‘fix’ it. From atomic energy to the atomic bomb, or antibiotics to antibiotic resistance, even a cursory acknowledgment of recent technoscientific history shows a disconcerting pattern of undeliverable promises, which lead instead to multifarious and intractable novel calamities. For instance, in 1998 Nigel Clark presented a critique on ‘Nanoplanet: Molecular Engineering in the Time of Ecological Crisis’ that still applies today:

What is both heartening and horrifying about the speculative regime of molecular engineering is that it offers a technological response to these very issues [the ecological crisis]: heartening because its logic of maximal effects from a minimal intervention promises to bridge the temporal chasm between awareness of an environmental problem and effective action, [and] horrifying because a solution of this nature inevitably has so much in common with the problem it addresses.

(Clark 1998, p. 357)

It is both telling and profoundly troubling that this state of affairs describes the same chasm between those who find today’s dream of a Synthetic Age “heartening” and those who find it “horrifying”. For instance, some of the earliest research into oil spill bioremediation examined the possibility of genetically engineering bacteria that could break down the crude oil. This also provided the first patent of a lifeform, when the microbiologist Ananda Chakrabarty won his case in the U.S. Supreme Court in 1980 and gained the right to patent his genetically engineered Pseudomonas genus bacterium. Nonetheless, despite an intervening four decades of seismic research in this arena, harnessing lifeforms to ameliorate oil spills remains a dream, not least because, like all dreams, the vision is not shared; for oil companies, the prospect of a microorganism that can eat their reserves is a nightmare that they most definitely do not want realised.

For Clark, these “heartening” and “horrifying” spectres held particular relevance to genetic engineering and subsequently to its direct descendant, synthetic biology. The contemporary relevance of Clark’s (1998) critique of molecular engineering is also apparent in his 1997 critique of genetic engineering, which according to his arguments represented the culmination of the modern drive to master the natural world [through] the application of technical rationality to its most infinitesimal and intimate recesses. The attempt to assert control over bio-physical processes at this level courts disaster of a kind which is without precedent in the history of human interventions.

(Clark 1997, p. 77)

Clark drew upon Steven Spielberg’s Jurassic Park as a representation of the contemporaneous cultural imaginary of genetic engineering. Nowadays, the fictional de-extinction is pursued through another application of synthetic biology, which is to resurrect extinct species such as the woolly mammoth and the passenger pigeon. What was merely a fable about the folly of human hubris in 1997 is now pursued as real-world response to the Sixth Extinction Event.

The title of Clark’s (1997) article, ‘Panic Ecology: Nature in the Age of Superconductivity’ still haunts today’s dream of redemption, as does his ‘Nanoplanet’ article. Clark’s “heartening” receptivity toward molecular and genetic engineering soon came to reside firmly within those who found the prospect “horrifying”, even as we became “the victims of bio-tech ‘imagineering’” according to philosopher Eugene Thacker in 2003, due to a “blatant disparity between hyper-optimism and an overall lack of concrete results (Thacker 2003, p. 106)”. A decade later, in 2013, philosopher Bensaude-Vincent found the discrepancy had only worsened, due to how the futuristic visions of today technoscientists are strikingly amnesic, so detached from the past that they are totally abstract. In particular, Synthetic Biology is often promoted as a source of technological fixes… But the concern with the damages due to the previous generations of ‘new technologies’ does not invite reflections about the next new generations, i.e., the long-term unintended consequences of all technological innovations.

(Bensaude-Vincent 2013, p. 30)

Like Thacker, Bensaude-Vincent locates the cultural imaginary of technoscience as driving the dream of redemption, wherein “in Synthetic Biology and recent biotechnologies, imagination takes a more positive and important role, which is by no means in contradiction with the exercise of reason and reasoning. Imagination provides guidelines for action because it bridges the gap between the possible and the real” (Bensaude-Vincent 2013, p. 25). Notwithstanding the legitimacy of such critiques towards normative synthetic biology, Clark, Thacker, and Bensaude-Vincent do not consider conservation applications, which raises the question of whether their critiques need to be reconsidered in the context of this proposed domain.

Nowadays, for those who do not want the dream to ever be attempted in reality, or for those who see the dream as being a fantasy that could never manifest in the world of Thacker’s “concrete results”, there is increasingly widespread acknowledgment even amongst the caveat-burdened corridors of academia that the tenure of our species is nearly at its end. In any and all eventualities. Critical theorist McKenzie Wark puts it more frankly: “this civilisation is over, and everyone knows it” (Wark 2015). Though the prospects for extinction extent to whether this biosphere is over, and who will admit it?

Of course, if it were already so, then it would be fruitless to entertain proposals for a Synthetic Age. But, when Wark uses the word “over” he means it in terms of the vague timeframe of civilizational collapse—the time it has taken past civilisations to go from inevitably “over” to actually gone has ranged from a matter of months to decades (Diamond 2004Tainter 1990). Within this unknown temporal window, and operating out of the uncertainty and uncanniness that the spectre of the Anthropocene produces, there remain various competing worldviews that tell us how we should speak responsibly for endangered species and ecologies, and how to act accordingly. The complex ethics involved in formulating and propagating these worldviews and determining our ensuing actions will be discussed below.

Nowadays, those supporting the use of synthetic biology in conservation do so with an acute awareness of the centrality of different worldviews to such issues. For instance, just as Preston seeks a philosophical lens for examining the prospect of a Synthetic Age, there is also a philosophy underpinning the interventionist ethos advocated in ‘Is It Time?’, which argues that “the opportunity to resolve biodiversity issues may depend on a sea-change of philosophy in the conservation movement to incorporate the application of adapted genomes into the wild” (Piaggio et al. 2017, p. 98). This sea-change may be read both at face value and as metaphor, where the first reading prefigures the second. After all, if rising seas are lapping at your doorstep, would you not abandon outdated worldviews in favour of ‘anything goes’, given it is self-evident that everything is going under? This is not about pontificating in the armchair corridors of academia, but about making crucial decisions as to whether and how technoscience may be deployed as a life raft for imperilled species.

Taking Preston’s Synthetic Age as one framework for conservation in the Anthropocene, what then lies between his philosophy and that of the ‘Is It Time’ scientists? Or, to phrase it another way: what lies between the dream and the timeframe now available to turn it into reality? Once the rising seas are already lapping at our doorsteps, it is too little, too late to do anything but run away, given that there is a roughly five-decade lag between greenhouse gas emissions and discernible biophysical change. This is not to suggest that the temporal dimension is a mere half century. Rather, future climatic change, sea level rise, and so on, will continue across centuries into millennia, even if all emissions stop today (Archer 2009). Similarly, multitudes of species have already been labelled with the term ‘extinction debt’, meaning that their future extinction has been securely determined by events which have already transpired (Kuussaari et al. 2009). Such is “the race” that technoscientific conservation is up against. Such are the ecological and evolutionary trends that conservation needs to be considered against.

Dreaming and philosophy may not come to mind as central to considering human-inflected evolution in the context of human-induced extinction, but their underpinning of the entire ethos of technoscientific conservation cannot be so easily discounted. Even Alistair Elfick and Drew Endy, two synthetic biology advocates and practitioners since the field’s circa 2003 inception, readily concede that ushering in a Synthetic Age is presently still just a dream:

Scientists and engineers hold a responsibility to consider the impact of the knowledge and technology that they bring to the world. In our imagining, dreaming, and aspiring to create a set of future possibilities, it is clear that as a community, synthetic biologists need to engage in debate with wider stakeholders about the purposes of their work and whether or not these would best be achieved using synthetic biology.

(Elfick and Endy 2014, p. 24)

It is precisely this willingness to enter into debate (including debate with those opposed to the field) that arguably distinguishes synthetic biology from other contemporary forms of technoscience. Those proponents of the field who enter into dialogue often attribute their willingness to engage with debate to an open acknowledgement of the grave ethical and moral concerns about the field, and of the formidable imaginary of scientific hubris, from the Industrial Revolution-era of Frankenstein, to the post-apocalyptic-2019 of Blade Runner.

The dream is encapsulated on the cover of yet another synthetic biology event of 2017: the conference booklet to ‘SB7.0: The Seventh International Meeting of Synthetic Biology’, issued to the 900 delegates for their four-day conference at the National University of Singapore in June 2016, with Endy as one of the conveners. The cover is a drawing of a rainforest, populated by DNA, microbes, insects, amphibians, fish, birds, and mammals, in particular a lioness. Yet, while the booklet detailed dozens of presentations, the vast majority had no relation to the Anthropocene, or ecological issues in general. The disjuncture is not remarked upon anywhere in conference program itself: Singapore, which means “Lion City”, is no longer a jungle, but rather a concrete jungle. The absence of dialogue within the fields that have given birth to the technologies supporting interventionist conservation is particularly worrying given that conservation is no longer about single-issue or single-place preservation, but rather wholesale interventions into ecosystems and evolution itself.

3. Jungle City

In 1854, when Alfred Russel Wallace commenced his nine-year-long immersion in South East Asia, the first place he visited was Singapore. His daily fieldwork in jungles peripheral to the then nascent colonial settlement brought him into contact with tigers—not that he saw one, but that he heard them while working there. Even at that point Wallace foresaw the dire consequences of the jungle being cleared to make way for the colonial settlement that was Singapore, remarking that if such destruction was not halted, or at least surveyed and controlled, then:

future ages will certainly look back upon us as a people so immersed in the pursuit of wealth as to be blind to higher considerations. They will charge us with having culpably allowed the destruction of some of those records of Creation which we had it in our power to preserve.

(Wallace 1863, p. 210)

By the time he had travelled the globe and studied widely, Wallace had seen first-hand how such human-induced destruction was being repeated the world over, concluding in 1876 that “we live in a zoologically impoverished world, from which all the hugest, and fiercest, and strangest forms have recently disappeared” (Wallace 1876, p. 150). For Singapore, this had taken on another layer of irony by 1930, when tigers had become extirpated, save for domestically bred individuals imprisoned in the island’s zoo. Though vast rifts lie between the human-influenced Holocene megafauna extinction that Wallace presciently recognised in 1876, such as regional extirpations of Malayan tigers in Singapore, and the 2017 of ‘Is It Time?’, ‘New Interventions’, and ‘Engineering Resilience’ calls to embark upon technoscientific conservation. Such technoscience is not akin to replanting the rainforests, with a view to making a habitat for a tiger to return to, but rather with ’Bioengineering the Biosphere’, as per Richard Sole, or ‘Albedo Enhancement by Stratospheric Sulfur Injections’, as per Paul Crutzen.

Nowadays, the only place we can find a Singaporean jungle ecosystem and inhabitants as featured on the SB7.0 booklet cover is in the recreated natures of the island’s zoo. Just as dreams of restoring some actual jungle are made manifest inside the biotech laboratories of concrete jungles, the SB7.0 commercial, industrial, and academic sponsors show how the field imagines its normative applications extending from human-benefit to benefitting the more-than-human world.

While SB7.0 was no exception in having such aims, this organisation is notable well beyond its status as the key international lynchpin for the burgeoning field of synthetic biology. The 2017 conference was arguably also the first major public ‘outing’ of synthetic biology for conservation purposes. Day one entreated the delegates, the vast majority of whom were scientists, engineers or other such technical specialists, to a panel on the field’s socio-cultural dimensions entitled ‘Art, Critique, Design and Our World’. The familiar litany of humanities and social science critique of synthetic biology ensued, showing that Clark’s (1997), Thacker’s (2003) and Bensaude-Vincent’s (2013) concerns still reverberate and therefore remain relevant to the field today. However, there was a telling absence of critique of synthetic biology from non-scientists and the humanities that even remotely engaged with the then-current state of our ecological crisis.

For instance, one of the panel presenters, the artist Oron Catts, confronted the delegates with a particularly blunt and scathing critique, describing how the field forms part of what he terms the “Single Engineering Paradigm” (Catts and Zurr 2014, p. 28), alongside Crutzen’s climate engineering and Sole’s biosphere engineering, all of which will combine to manifest Preston’s dystopian Synthetic Age. Elsewhere, Catts and fellow artist Ionat Zurr ran through the same litany of objections to synthetic biology for the first five pages of their text on ‘Countering the Engineering Mindset: The Conflict of Art and Synthetic Biology’, only acknowledging at the bottom of the sixth page that “it is also a time of ecological crisis and its gloomy future predictions” (Catts and Zurr 2014, p. 33).

The fact is, if the humanities are to engage with conservation on its own terms, then it is not “also a time of ecological crisis”—it is only “a time of ecological crisis”. Regardless of the actual validity of humanities critique, this really only serves to perpetuate its seeming irrelevance when the existential threats posed to multitudes of species are relegated to page six of an aggressive riposte. To put it bluntly, the humanities and social science continue to engage with the field of conservation technoscience as if the “time of ecological crisis” was merely a background event to critique.

Conversely, for those asking ‘Is It Time For Synthetic Biodiversity Conservation’, it is truly only “a time of ecological crisis”, as they derive their answers to the question in full recognition of how conservation science is decades behind the velocity of biophysical change. For instance, the ‘Engineering Resilience’ workshop and ‘New Interventions’ publications occurred the year after the unprecedented global coral bleaching event of 2016–17, which was followed, for the first time in recorded history, by the first ever back-to-back bleaching event of 2017–18, then, yet another first, of the global bleaching event of 2019–20. Events of such frequency and ferocity were not anticipated to occur until the middle of this century, leaving us to ask whether it is not now irrelevant to ask “Is it Time”? Might the correct question be whether it is, in fact, already too late?

Given that such shattered records for ecological upheaval have become everyday affairs, the notion that the excesses of capitalism and consumerism can be reined in, inequality redressed and the tide of human-caused mass extinction stemmed is clearly completely anachronistic at this stage of the Anthropocene. The humanities are still arguing from the point of view of yesteryear conservation, when the situation may have still been salvageable, rather than engaging with the possibility that next to nothing can be saved, no matter what the potential efficacy of technoscientific conservation. As Christopher Preston argues in Climate Justice and Geoengineering: Ethics and Policy in the Atmospheric Anthropocene:

Many of the best options for dealing with the escalating climate problem are no longer on the table. The options that remain are increasingly far from ideal. What might have been a slow and orderly transition to a low-carbon economy will now have to be a rapid and lurching one. What might have been a timely and balanced research and development path away from fossil fuels and towards clean technologies will now have to be an almost impossibly quick one. Where climate engineering once looked outlandish or even repulsive, it is now becoming increasingly credible to growing numbers of observers.

(Preston 2016, p. xi)

Writing in 2016, Preston illustrates the sizeable replies that had amounted in the 10 years following Crutzen’s ‘Albedo Enhancement’ publication in 2006. In this vein, Catts and Zurr’s “gloomy future predictions” have already arrived, although, as William Gibson put it, “the future has already arrived, it is just not evenly distributed” (Gibson 2003). The future of technoscientific conservation will not be evenly distributed either, given how the economic and political disparities that fuelled the current crisis will inequitably impact on the attempted technofixes.

Day two of SB7.0 brought the focus back to those who seek to act upon these “options that remain [that] are increasingly far from ideal” for responding to human-caused extinction. In the panel session on ‘Biodiversity & Conservation’, eight scientists and conservation practitioners each delivered 12-min proposals for using synthetic biology in conservation. Their proposals pertained to endangered species, ranging from enhancing the resistance of the American chestnut tree to a fungal blight brought over a century ago in transplanted trees from Japan, enhancing the thermal tolerance of coral, synthesising the blood of the Horseshoe crab so that it is no longer harvested for its blood to be used for human vaccination manufacture, making malarial mosquitoes all male so that they cannot breed, to reduce malaria, and likewise making invasive rodents on secluded islands all male so that they cannot breed, to reduce island extinctions caused by the rodents. One of the presenters, Sonja Luz, Director of Conservation and Research at Wildlife Reserves Singapore, brought a local focus, talking about the pocket of recreated jungle in the zoo where the island’s sole tigers now live in captivity, and her receptivity to what synthetic biology could mean for zoo-based conservation. In the question-and-answer session following, the presenters were inundated with enthusiastic responses from delegates: it should be noted that, for most of the delegates, these new conservation applications represented an extreme departure from the normative applications which dominate the field. Through such outreach conferences, the dream gets extended beyond the fringe and into the mainstream, gaining currency via newfound interest from the commercial, industrial and academic stakeholders in attendance.

If 2017 was the year when synthetic biology and conservation biology left the margins and entered the mainstream of technoscientific conservation, 2018 was the year when these strange bedfellows began to be taken seriously, beyond the realm of TED talks and industry conferences. In April 2018, the Joint Task Force and Technical Working Group of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (hereafter IUCN) convened at Jesus College, Cambridge, for the first meeting of the Synthetic Biology and Biodiversity Conservation project. The peak international body for the “Conservation of Nature” is researching the efficacy of synthetic biology amidst the unfolding Sixth Extinction Event. The answer to the question ‘Is It Time?’ is quite simply that it has now come to this.

4. Intervention Is Better than Cure

If it is time for novel worldviews, as per the Anthropocene, and, arguably, for novel conservation practices, then it is also time to reconsider the role of language in framing a stance toward both. The Kafkaesque absurdity of the IUCN Task Force nomenclature throws the inadequacies of concepts of ‘natural’, ‘artificial’ and ’conservation’ into sharp relief: ‘natural’, for example, raises a self-contradiction inherent to the interventionist ethos. Humans are accustomed to perceiving themselves outside of, or opposed to, nature. But, given that the Anthropos is part of nature, including, therefore, all the products of our labours, how can our modes of inhabiting the earth, no matter how catastrophically irresponsible and disastrous, be an act of ‘intervening’ in that-which-we-are-always-inextricably-part-of? Surely we have only ever been working with and within nature, however unsuccessfully, and not merely ‘intervening’ in ‘nature’? Just as we have been worked on by ‘nature’ too, and just as we are composed of ‘nature.’ For we are ‘nature’, along with the entirety of the living and non-living world, as well as the cosmos to which this particular planet is hitched.

When Raymond Williams observed that nature is “perhaps the most complex word in the [English] language” he was not engaging in mere semantics, but rather pointing out the prevalence for different interpretations of ‘nature’ as a word, and how they manifest vastly different worldviews. And, further, since it is a word which carries, over a very long period, many of the major variations of human thought—often, in any particular use, only implicitly yet with powerful effect on the character of the argument—it is necessary to be especially aware of its difficulty.

(Williams 2014, p. 169)

Therein, we see that when the ‘Is It Time?’ co-authors nod to how “the opportunity to resolve biodiversity issues may depend on a sea-change of philosophy in the conservation movement” (Piaggio et al. 2017, p. 98), this sea-change pivots on highly contested worldviews about what is nature, and thus what is natural, more so than any other concept.

This pivot has further repercussions for an interventionist ethos, as Williams presciently observed in 1980, stating that “we have mixed our labour with the earth, our forces with its forces too deeply to be able to draw back and separate either out” (Williams 1980, p. 83). This means distinctions between what is natural versus what is cultural, social, synthetic or artificial—i.e., human—are increasingly indiscernible and arguably the product of false distinctions arising from Enlightenment rationality, so-called. While the word ‘conservation’ does not command the same level of “difficulty” as ‘nature’, it too fosters worldviews that are incommensurate with the more-than-human world itself. Put plainly, the meanings of the word were decidedly different for the half a millennium before it came to refer to conservation of ‘nature’ with the emergence of modern environmentalism in the 1950s. Then again, every word-at-stake warrants such scrutiny, as Eileen Crist points out with regard to the notion of the Anthropocene, in her treatise ‘On the Poverty of Our Nomenclature’ (Crist 2013).

With regard to conservation through synthetic biology, this means that the term ‘human-directed evolution’ cannot represent the endeavour, nor can analogous conjoined terms such as ‘-designed’, ‘-engineered’, or ‘-inflected’. The “poverty of our nomenclature” concerning human effects on evolution is palpably brought to light in the artist and biologist Angelo Vermeulen’s (2006) interactive installation Blue Shift. Here, Vermeulen demonstrates a human-influenced microevolution of water fleas housed in aquaria connected to custom electronics. In the absence of any humans, yellow lights illuminate the aquaria from above, attracting the fleas to the upper water register. In the presence of nearby humans, sensor beams within the installation are intercepted, triggering blue lights above the aquaria instead. For water fleas, blue light indicates open ocean, where they are subject to higher predation than shallow water, indicated by yellow light.

However, Blue Shift deliberately tricks the water fleas: those that instinctively swim away from the blue light pass through a false bottom, housing fish which eat them. Thus, only those water fleas who (counter-intuitively) do not swim away from the blue light go on to survive and reproduce, manifesting a form of microevolution by conferring genetic traits for not-swimming-away-from-blue-light onto their descendants. Setting aside the ethical issues raised by using non-human creatures for the purposes of art, as well as other variables, such as how many generations are bred within Blue Shift, and whether the fleas are released into an open ecosystem or not after a presentation of the installation concludes, the question of whether this is human ‘-directed’, ‘-designed’, ‘-engineered’, or ’-inflected’ evolution remains an open question. The agency appears to possess something from each category, and yet no category can remotely capture the complexity of the agency at play here, even in this seemingly simple example.

A corresponding “poverty of our nomenclature” pertains to evolution vis-à-vis synthetic biology for conservation, yet with inscrutably more complex agency and causality. This raises intractable challenges for the ethics of such conservation given that these ethics arise according to the efficacy of the conservation. If the endeavour is, after all, a dream with no efficacious transferral into reality, then the corresponding ethical debate remains academic, in the sense of privileged detachment from the ecological crisis unfolding. This is ultimately due to the fact that proposed conservation is conditional on five chronological stages of experimentation: in silico, in vitro, in vivo, ex situ, in situ. And, here, the stakes are all the more ultimate; genetic and microbial interventions can only be remotely assayed when considered in their respective evolutionary contexts. If a genetic intervention is not inherited by a sufficient number of the modified organism’s descendants, then it becomes as ephemeral as the life of that population of individuals.

Furthermore, there is no singular discrete ‘intervention’ taking place. The Anthropocene thesis holds that the entirety of the Earth System has been rendered into a planetary-scale Blue Shift, though, in the scaling up, any discrete chains of causality have become subsumed within the incalculable forcings of human progeny, coupled with those of inhuman, nonhuman, and more-than-human progeny. As Wallace Broecker declared in 1987, with regard to human-caused climate change:

The inhabitants of Earth are quietly conducting a gigantic experiment. So vast and sweeping will be the consequences that, were it brought before any reasonable council for approval, it would be firmly rejected. Yet it goes on with little interference from any jurisdiction or nation… We play Russian roulette with climate, hoping that the future will hold no unpleasant surprises. No one knows what lies in the active chamber of the gun.

(Broecker 1987, p. 124)

Ethics applied to the ‘intervening’ in this “gigantic experiment” must grapple with domains and dominions that not only eviscerate categorical distinctions between the inhuman, nonhuman, and more-than-human, but also with the pitfalls that result from privileging “matters of concern” over “matters of fact.” (Latour 2004).

5. Time’s up

Just as humanities scholarship all too often falls short in its attempts to engage with the science of biology (whether evolutionary, conservation, or synthetic), so too are scientists’ limitations revealed by their attempts to critically scrutinise the “matters of concern” raised by the humanities about their own work. This was exemplified in a 2000 National Academy of Sciences conference on The Future of Evolution, when only one of the papers presented mentioned ethics at all: Paul Ehrlich’s ’Intervening in Evolution: Ethics and Actions.’ Ehrlich opened with a framing that, while not uncommon in scientific literature at the time, is ubiquitous two decades later, and not just in the sciences but across the humanities and social sciences: “There is no question that Homo sapiens, in addition to causing the sixth major spasm of biotic extinction, is also altering the course of evolution for millions of years in the future” (Ehrlich 2002, p. 5476). Following this opening, Ehrlich devotes the four pages of his paper to “what ethical obligations might this impose on scientists to respond in various ways? And … what might scientists do to be more effective in informing society of its options in this area?” (Ehrlich 2002, p. 5477). Yet, like Wilson in The Future of Life, Ehrlich laments how “the speed at which society is changing the evolutionary prospect seems fated to remain much more rapid than the rate at which society is developing ethics to deal with the challenges that change may present” (Ehrlich 2002, p. 5478).

The divergent paths have only become all the more pronounced in the two decades since, including between synthetic biology proponents and opponents. In his impassioned Defiant Earth: The Fate of Humans in the Anthropocene philosopher Clive Hamilton laments how the science that has evinced the Anthropocene has also unleashed “a paradigm shift in the earth sciences” which in turn “is prompting an ontological shift in self-understanding and the human-Earth relation, although it is tragically true that the science is decades ahead of the zeitgeist” (Hamilton 2017, p. 52). For instance, on the subject of ’Intervening in Evolution: Ethics and Actions’, Ehrlich simply declared that scientists could “be more effective in informing society of its options in this area” (Ehrlich 2002, p. 5479).

Such a notion of the relationship between science and society is premised on the information-deficit model, which holds that lay citizens would make informed (and, by implication, rational) decisions pending sufficient accessible information about a scientific subject. For instance, this model presumes that, if the lay citizenry understood climate science better, they would then make less selfish, short-term, and self-destructive decisions about what climate policy to support. However, such simplistic worldviews have shown themselves to be grossly inapplicable to the notional “options” at hand. Regarding The Fate of Humans in the Anthropocene, Hamilton boils these “options” down to an overly simplistic framework, albeit one without any equivalent and no sense of the real impending peril:

Humankind is now confronted with a momentous decision: to attempt to exert more control so as to subdue the Earth with greater technological power—the express purpose of some forms of geoengineering—or to draw back and practice meekness, with all of the social consequences that would follow.

(Hamilton 2017, p. 17)

While he is not referring to synthetic biology specifically, the principles apply nonetheless, as per Catts and Zurr’s earlier summation of the Single Engineering Paradigm. In any case, it is patently obvious that today’s “zeitgeist” is anything but informed and rational, least of all when it comes to using technoscience for conservation. This is because stances toward conservation are deeply shaped by emotions, rather than the ideas of a sufficiently well-informed and verifiably rational actor. Ehrlich acknowledges this when he states that his preferred form of conservation practice, which would be to bolster networks of national parks as ‘wildlife corridors’ across continents, is “where I would come down emotionally if I could ignore the practical and ethical complexities”, whereas he declares the opposing extreme to be the “technological optimists who assume that genetic engineers will soon be able to produce any needed biodiversity” (Ehrlich 2002, p. 5480).

This blurring between “matters of fact” and “matters of concern” has telling expressions in the scientific framing of synthetic biology for conservation. Putting Ehrlich’s concerns into contemporary practice, biologist Kevin Esvelt researches gene drives for purposes such as making all structurally integrated populations of mosquitos or invasive rodents male, in order to eradicate them from a region or island, respectively. Sculpting Evolution, the name Esvelt gave to the group he founded at MIT Media Lab, speaks volumes about the categorical errors of our language, let alone our actions, in terms of recognising what is at stake. Whether a single scientist operating on the micro-scale of synthetic biology or a team operating on the macro-scale of climate engineering, there is no human agency for Sculpting Evolution, as if evolution itself were some innate matter that yields to our every whim.

Esvelt conducts public talks, op-eds, blogs and interviews where he candidly acknowledges the profound ethical dilemmas that his work raises. And yet, like relegating the discussion of ethics in relation to The Future of Evolution to a mere four pages in the eponymous edited volume, none of Esvelt’s academic publications or public engagement evidences any study of, or collaboration with, actual ethicists (Esvelt et al. 2014Esvelt and Gemmell 2017). This is not to suggest that Ehrlich, Esvelt, or any other scientist should perform the work of an ethicist, though the problem persists that scientists and ethicists are largely talking to one another exclusively in relation to “matters of concern” about multitudes of imperilled species. To scale up this Blue Shift-sized disjuncture to the planet: even if Esvelt or other such scientists collaborated with ethicists, no ethical framework genuinely commensurate with Hamilton’s “momentous decision” of whether or not to deploy technoscientific conservation could ever actually be formed. Hamilton thus concludes his book on The Fate of Humans in the Anthropocene with a confession from a Professor of Public Ethics: “we have to confront the most difficult truth—in the Anthropocene we have no ethical resources to draw on. The cupboard is bare” (Hamilton 2017, p. 110).

Such is the challenge now facing not only scientists and philosophers of technoscientific conservation but the assembling policy makers, bureaucrats, legal scholars and others who mediate between dreams born of a cultural imaginary and their translation into reality. Of course, while this article focuses on societies embedded in developed-world democratic institutions and dynamics, we must also recognise the existence of societies where no consultation of either ethics or the population at large will be deemed necessary before in situ experimentation with these technologies commences, further undermining the idea that any worldview can remotely fathom the complexity, uncertainty and volatility of the state of play. Here, however, we focus on the disjuncture occurring in western democracies, and as Clark reminds, today’s disjuncture harks back to Ulrich Beck’s 1985 landmark Risk Society hypothesis about industrial modernity in the Global North (Beck [1985] 1992). Reflecting in 1998 on Beck’s hypothesis, Clark once again showed a telling prescience for the situation at hand:

As we seek to intervene in realms that we now understand to be composed of great numbers of parts undergoing a kaleidoscopic array of simultaneous interactions, a new set of demands is placed on the technological apparatus. Whatever the amount of intelligence we can program into our sub-micro or macro machine systems, the encounter with conditions of non-linearity is likely to call for responses which exceed our capacity to make sense of the situation.

(Clark 1998, p. 362)

In words that radically undermine claims toward definitive guidelines and principles, as per august bodies such as the IUCN Synthetic Biology and Biodiversity Conservation Task Force, Clark lamented back then how this disjuncture presents an enormous challenge to theory, which in relation to the frenetic feedback mechanisms of the new global networks appears as a lag-ridden and slow-replicating edifice…call[s] for public accountability of the scientific and economic apparatus seems to offer only the drag coefficient of a lost linear modernity—a world of processes ponderous enough to still allow for the fantasy of collective steering.

(Clark 1998, p. 366)

Thus, given the ends for which genetic and microbial interventions are intended, it is imperative to engage with these domains on something approximating their own terms. For, in these inhuman, nonhuman, and more-than-human domains lies the dream of human-inflected evolution as a counterpoint to human-induced extinction. In turn, the following presents an inconclusive conclusion, acknowledging that the questions asked here must largely remain both open-ended, and without definitive answers.

6. Closed Minded and Open-Ended

In the question-and-answer session following the ‘Biodiversity & Conservation’ panel at SB7.0, one of the presenters, Kent Redford, told the audience how the session’s origins went back to 2013, when the world’s first such meeting between synthetic and conservation biologists took place (Redford 2013). Held at Cambridge University, ‘How will Synthetic Biology and Conservation Shape the Future of Nature?’ brought these strange bedfellows together over three days of presentations and workshops. Redford, who convened this 2013 symposium, has since been instrumental in organising, facilitating, and convening a series of events that directly followed on from the original symposium, as well as in writing and publishing the working papers, reports, guidelines, and academic papers that emerged from these events. These events included ‘The New Genomic Solutions for Conservation Problems Workshop’ with the U.S. NGO Revive & Restore in 2015; ‘Biodiversity Conservation in the Context of Synthetic Biology’ workshop with the IUCN and the Rockefeller Foundation, also in 2015; ‘Advancing Genetic Rescue’ at the World Conservation Congress in 2016; convening the ‘Biodiversity & Conservation’ panel in 2017; forming the IUCN Task Force and a Technical Subgroup in 2018; and overseeing its policy outcomes for the World Conservation Congress in 2020.

Originally a conservation biologist, Redford is arguably emblematic of the shift from normative to experimental technoscientific conservation and also played a key role in recognising the relevance of the cultural imaginary underpinning the dream of implementing this shift. In his SB7.0 presentation, Redford not only included Raymond Williams’ aforementioned landmark interrogation of the concept of ‘nature’, and its relevance for technoscientific conservation, but also emphasised just how tenuous, uncertain, and hubristic the dream is. He did so by way of a lengthy quote from Sheila Jasanoff, Professor of Science and Technology Studies at the Harvard Kennedy School, from her “call [for] the ‘technologies of humility’”, which she defines as:

Institutionalized habits of thought, that try to come to grips with the ragged fringes of human understanding—the unknown, the uncertain, the ambiguous, and the uncontrollable. Acknowledging the limits of prediction and control, technologies of humility confront ‘head-on’ the normative implications of our lack of perfect foresight. They call for different expert capabilities and different forms of engagement between experts, decision-makers, and the public than were considered needful in the governance structures of high modernity. They require not only the formal mechanisms of participation but also an intellectual environment in which citizens are encouraged to bring their knowledge and skills to bear on the resolution of common problems.

(Jasanoff 2005, p. 227)

Which is to say that, in the context of technoscientific conservation, even those extensively engaged in the field, and in possession of the relevant scientific and/or technical expertise, maintain that the dream requires humility, not hubris. Indeed, Bensaude-Vincent offers a cautionary note when she argues that “the novel forms of life will not escape the contingencies of evolution. Since all synthetic organisms will have to take place in the world, it is unrealistic to imagine that they will have a predictable behaviour. If they are capable of evolution they are not under human control” (Bensaude-Vincent 2013, p. 30). As always—there is a more extant history behind such dreams, with Clark remarking back in 1998 that “there is a price to be paid for this novel capacity to deal with multivariate and simultaneous interactions, which is a certain loss of control—a devolution of authority from a central programmer to the synthetic system itself” (Clark 1998, p. 362).

One of the other presenters at SB7.0, the British designer and academic Alexandra Daisy Ginsberg, offered a complementary tone to Redford and Jasanoff, albeit from a design rather than a scientific point of view. Having attended the ‘How will Synthetic Biology and Conservation Shape the Future of Nature?’ symposium in 2013, Ginsberg viewed the nascent field through the lens of her critical design practice. In turn, she created ‘Designing for the Sixth Extinction’, a series of fictional new-to-nature creatures, created by companies to perform bioremediation and biodiversity offsetting. Like the SB7.0 booklet cover, her designs consisted of computer-generated creatures realistically placed into photographs of actual forests, accompanied by a patent statement for each that outlined the ownership of its intellectual property, as well as its commercial value, protected through measures such as kill-switches designed to terminate the creature after a programmed duration, so that the companies’ services will always be required to manufacture more of them.

Ginsberg’s work captures both the ongoing validity of the humanities’ critique of the field, including the need for humility, as well as a measured acknowledgement that it does indeed appear to be “Time for Synthetic Biodiversity Conservation”, albeit a version of that conservation that radically redefines core concepts, including the notion of humility itself:

Our greatest challenge may be to acknowledge that the design rules for biology are unlike those for any other material. Human intention may not be enough to overcome evolution. Synthetic biology’s designs on nature require us to adapt our understanding of design, the natural world, and life itself.

(Ginsberg 2014, p. 56)

Regrettably, Ginsberg’s practice is a typically isolated instance of cultural engagement with synthetic biology, meaning that the all-important cultural imaginary can too easily be conflated with the scant examples of such engagement. This imaginary is distributed across and between diverse stakeholders, though it is commonly reduced to whatever cultural artefacts exist, as a synecdoche for the intangible and inexpressible properties of a dream. Just as Jurassic Park was used as a short-hand description of the cultural imaginary of de-extinction in its time, so too is Ginsberg’s Design for the Sixth Extinction a short-hand for our time, although any such proxies are never the sole progeny of the cultural imaginary: this imaginary is also fashioned in the laboratory, the boardroom, the policy document, and other such ‘non-cultural’ spheres.

This issue was brought to the fore by Oliver Morton, another presenter at SB7.0. His paper was a highly unusual presentation in the context of a synthetic biology conference, replete with examples drawn from myths, paintings, poetry and other cultural artefacts. Morton began his presentation by talking about a key juncture in developing his book The Planet Remade: How Geoengineering Could Change the World. He recounted how his publisher advised him to include synthetic biology as well as climate engineering, given the former presents micro-scale, and the latter macro-scale, as proposals to mitigate the Anthropocene. Morton then explained how he resisted the advice, only to regret it later, having subsequently come to appreciate the manifold ways in which the two fields are two sides of the same coin. Essentially, Morton’s presentation encapsulated the rationale for The Planet Remade, which he described as an attempt to counter what happens when the possibilities of utopian imagination…are undercut, even betrayed, if the group doing the imagining is too small. That is currently the case, I think, for geoengineering. Listen to the discussion of the topic going on today and you will hear natural scientists who are cautiously curious about the ideas but have no real interest in trying to make them practical; you will hear social scientists and philosophers interested in providing critiques of the modes of thinking that shape the discourse; you will hear environmentalists who see in it, or project on to it, everything they dislike about centralized action, about capitalism, about mechanistic world views; you will hear the fantasies of the rich and powerful and the fears of the frightened and doctrinaire. It is too small a set of voices. The way a society imagines its future matters. And who gets to do the imagining matters.

(Morton 2017, p. 29)

During the conclusion to his presentation, the projected image above the stage changed from depicting the above-mentioned cultural artefacts, to return to the conference logo, a modified version of the image which adorned the booklet. The portrait presentation for the booklet had been turned into a circular motif, symbolising the earth, with Singapore’s skyscrapers emerging above the surface, an outer layer composed of microbes, and an inner layer composed of the same plants and animals from the conference booklet cover, and finally an innermost layer comprising the conference title SB 7.0 with eight human hands radiating out around the circle, in different skin tones to represent the diverse ethnicities and races of the differentiated Anthropos subsumed into the singular Anthropocene. This imagery presents the dream as if it were about future action, as per How Geoengineering Could Change thWorld, whereas those who have already awoken realise we are no longer fantasising but are already living within the dream itself.

SB7.0 was staged at the University Cultural Centre within the National University of Singapore, a kilometre from where the shoreline was when Wallace stayed there in 1854. Nowadays, one would need to travel a further 300 metres to reach the shoreline, to cross the land that has been reclaimed from the ocean through dredging, sand relocation and engineering. Which is to say that it is not so much about asking “Is it Time for Synthetic Biodiversity Conservation”, but rather time to acknowledge that we already inhabit a planet rife with the artifice and artificiality of design and engineering. At the same time, we must acknowledge that, however audacious the current proposals to extend this agency may be, they invoke increasing incursions into the inhuman, non-human and more-than-human world. Incursions, that it turns out, reveal technoscientific conservation in the Anthropocene to paradoxically be both vital and futile, as well as timely and too late.

Funding

This research was funded by the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence in Synthetic Biology (CE200100029). The views expressed herein are those of the author and are not necessarily those of the Australian Government or the Australian Research Council.

Acknowledgments

My thanks to Rubymaya Jaeck-Woodgate for feedback and editing successive drafts.

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War, Empire and Racism in the Anthropocene

By Nafeez Ahmed, originally published by Insurge Intelligence

Resilience version here

The Anthropocene. A proposed new geological epoch which designates a shift to a planetary age dominated by human impacts across the geological processes of the Earth. Geologists dispute the duration, precision, relevance and even accuracy of the concept. But the term has increasingly entered the scientific lexicon as increasing numbers of experts across myriad disciplines recognise that for the first time in history, the future of the entire planet — for generations if not millennia to come — is now being fundamentally determined by the activities of the human species. But the Anthropocene is about far more than just climate change. It is about an entire system of life, whose design is to maximise resource extraction at the expense of expendable ‘Others’. It is bound up, intimately, with a global system of racism emerging from the legacy of centuries of colonialism. And it is inseparable from the ceaseless sequence of industrial wars, culminating in today’s permanent state of the endless ‘war on terror’.

Human-induced global heating — terraforming the Earth beyond recognition

It is the unprecedented impact of anthropogenic climate change that has, perhaps, played the biggest role in efforts to define the Anthropocene as a distinctive new era in Earth’s history. Multiple warnings backed by a global consensus of climate scientists have warned over the last few decades that human activities, through the escalating consumption of fossil fuel resources — the burning of oil, gas and coal — is destabilising the Earth’s natural carbon cycle.

For hundreds of thousands of years, the planet has sustained an equilibrium, a ‘safe operating’ space offering an optimum environment for human and other habitation — in which the quantity of carbon emitted and absorbed by planetary ecosystems remains stable.

But since the Industrial Revolution, as human civilisation has inexorably expanded, consuming greater quantities of fossil fuel energy along the way, associated carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions have exponentially increased — overwhelming the planet’s capacity for absorption. The result has been a steady increase in global average temperatures.

Scientists warn that the extra addition of CO2 into the atmosphere, capturing greater heat, is in turn playing escalating havoc with the Earth’s climate, weather and ecological systems. As human civilisation continues its expansion, as it continues to burn up escalating quantities of fossil fuels, the climate science community warns that above a certain level of CO2 and global heating, planetary ecosystems will shift passed a key tipping point into a new, dangerous era — one that is outside the boundaries of the preceding hundreds of thousands of years, outside anything human beings have ever experienced.

If we continue on this pathway of business-as-usual, conservative projections suggest we are heading toward anywhere between a 3 to 6 degrees Celsius global average temperature rise.

Others, such as Schroders, the global investment firm, have suggested we could be heading toward an 8C planet due to the current rate of fossil fuel consumption — the 8C temperature projection was also suggested by a study funded by US Department of Energy’s Climate Change Research Division, which highlighted the potential impact of ‘amplifying feedback loops’ triggered by altering earth system processes that might trigger further greenhouse gas loading.

Between 4–6C, most climate scientists agree that there would be such a degree of chaos that the planet would become largely uninhabitable. The variation is complicated, and depends on a concept called ‘Earth System Sensitivity’ — how sensitive the planet’s ecosystems are to the CO2 change. But even at a conservative estimate of sensitivity, a 3C planet, to which at minimum we are likely heading, should be considered “extremely dangerous”; and a global average temperature rise within the 3–4C threshold would probably create conditions that make the core infrastructures of human civilisation increasingly unviable.

To the extent that governments are taking seriously this threat, they are doing so largely with a view to assess the implications for their own functioning — and with a view to consider how to sustain business-as-usual amidst rising instability. This is the context in which many studies have concluded that our current climate change trajectory will increase the chance of conflict. For the most part, Western national security agencies that have examined the issue agree that while climate change does not automatically produce war, it acts as an ‘amplifier’ which increases the prospect of war, due to its impacts in terms of water scarcity, the degeneration of critical food systems, the failure of conventional energy supplies, and the unpredictable impact of extreme weather events. Such impacts can sometimes devastate infrastructures and lead to the collapse of public services. In those contexts, the proliferating outbreak of wars and conflicts is widely recognised to be a likely symptom of climate change on a business-as-usual pathway.

The problem is that this usually leads to little reflection on the need to change the human system that is producing this trajectory — instead, we are largely told of the need for a greater expansion of security powers to respond to the chaos of a climate-impacted world: the intensification of the same system that produced the problem.

On the polar opposite of the spectrum, we have outright state denialism rooted in the goal of protecting the system of endless fossil fuel exploitation at any conceivable cost. It is telling that the Trump administration, as of March 2019, was considering the creation of a White House panel to dispute the findings of dozens of US military and intelligence assessments on the grave security risks posed by climate change. Which is interesting, given that the Pentagon emits more fossil fuel emissions than as many as 140 different countries.

And yet, the preoccupation with war that emerges from the narrow lens of ‘national security’ through which the human gaze is obsessed primarily with physical threats to the interests of nation-states, is ultimately counterproductive, symptomatic of the fragmentary cognitive framing in which human institutions are currently capable of thinking and acting — it focuses myopically on how to uphold the survival of the business-as-usual operations of the state and the interests lobbying through it, overlooking the global existential character of the crisis as a threat to the whole species.

At the worst end of the scale, war would be the least of our problems: we have the risk of a ‘hothouse’ Earth. A study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences found that the risk of an uninhabitable planet is not simply a far off possibility that might be triggered at several degrees of temperature rise in a more distant future — it could be triggered imminently; and it is possible that it may already have been triggered at the current level of an approximate 1C temperature rise above the pre-industrial average, which NASA’s former chief climate scientist James Hansen had argued is the safe upper limit, beyond which we move into a dangerous and more unpredictable climate with some consequences that may be irreversible.

But climate change is only one facet of the crisis. Our civilisational model, which has exponentially increasing energy and resource consumption as its driving motor, has seen human activities, exploitation and waste-generation accelerate across the planet. This has driven an escalating biodiversity crisis leading to potentially irreversible changes to soils and oceans, underpinning mass species extinctions.

Human civilisation and the war on life

About 15 years ago, the UN’s Millennium Ecosystem Assessment provided one of the first and most damning insights into the destruction wrought by humans that defines the Anthropocene. The report pinpointed the mid-twentieth century as a marked tipping point into a new era, where rapidly intensifying industrial agriculture accompanied an escalating collapse of biodiversity.

Consumption of food, water and fuel has not only exponentially increased, it has exponentially encroached on habitats — more in the preceding 50 years alone than throughout all of human history. The extinction rate of species was “up to one thou­sand times higher than the fossil record”, when “every thousand mammal species, less than one went extinct every millen­nium”. The UN assessment projected that the rate is still going up, and will be “ten times higher” in the near future.

The situation is now far worse than expected. This year, the UN’s Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services concluded that one million of the planet’s 8 million animal and plant species are at risk of going extinct in the near future, due to the expansion of human societies that has driven climate change, the loss of habitat, overfishing, pollution and invasive species.

Numerous studies have warned that our present trajectory is heading toward the collapse of our current form of civilisation. One model developed with NASA funding indicated that the current endless growth model of human civilisation was likely to lead to diminishing returns and deepening economic stratification, eventually culminating in collapse. All civilisations, the model seemed to show, tend to follow a growth trajectory consisting of an increasing intensification in complexity, whereby greater layers of complexity are continuously innovated to solve problems.

With each new layer, more complex problems are generated, requiring a further even more complex layer of problem-solving to address them, which in turn generates further problems. The cycle, drawing on the work of archaeologist Joseph Tainter who studied dozens of past civilisations, suggests that any civilisation will eventually collapse under the unsustainable weight of its own complexity due to excessive resource consumption and internal maldistribution of wealth — unless consumption and distribution begin to be rectified in time.

This particular model was fairly simple, focusing on a smaller number of variables to explore the general plausibility of the core hypothesis. A few years later, a far more complex scientific model with thousands of data inputs was developed by Anglia Ruskin University’s Global Sustainability Institute. with funding from the British Foreign Office. When run forward on a business-as-usual trajectory, the model suggested that human civilisation would probably collapse around 2040 amidst an eruption of converging climate, energy, food and water crises that would devastate major economies amidst an epidemic of food riots. Conventional war might happen — but either way, the planet would likely experience a proliferation of civil unrest within, between and across borders.

This year, a scenario analysis backed by the former head of Australia’s military drew on the peer-reviewed scientific literature to outline a plausible business-as-usual trajectory, based on what we know about how planetary ecosystems can respond to human-induced CO2 emissions. The scenario took seriously the scientific evidence of a potential ‘hothouse’ Earth scenario. It suggested that by 2050, human societies would face “outright chaos” due to escalating climate-impacts on key ecosystems, with two billion people suffering from water scarcity and another billion requiring relocation just to survive. The prospects would severely strain the capacity of human civilisation to function, and increase the chances of its collapse. The authors of this analysis called on the national security sector, the agencies of war, to respond more appropriately to these risks by supporting a comprehensive World War 2 style mobilisation to transition to a post-carbon civilisation.

While perhaps well-intentioned, the report did not recognise that war agencies might be structurally incapable of undertaking such a response precisely due to their embeddedness in the institutions captured by the very same fossil fuel system — and that such a transformation would conceivably imperil their very reason for being.

Another assessment in the form of a scientific briefing commissioned to feed into the UN’s Sustainable Development report found that one of the key drivers behind the growing risk of collapse is the very nature of the endless growth model of capitalism, as currently structured. The more we escalate our consumption of resources, raw materials, minerals and energy, the more we are using up the cheapest and most plentiful resources, and therefore the greater the costs of continued production. Drawing on the pioneering work of environmentalist Professor Charles Hall, the study advocated a focus on the ‘energy return on investment’ (EROI) of national and global energy systems to measure how efficient they really are (EROI measures the quantity of energy used to extract energy). The answer? Efficiency is declining for largely geological reasons. As the costs increase due to the need for greater quantities of energy and more complicated mechanisms of exploitation; the returns to society diminish. As we are using ever increasing quantities of energy and resources just to extract more energy and resources, the surplus we have left to sustain the financing of the public goods and services necessary to maintain a functioning civilisation is declining. This doesn’t mean we are running out of energy — but it means that as the energetic and environmental costs of energy extraction increase, we effectively have less and less spare to invest back into key social goods.

French economists Victor Court and Florian Fizaine showed in a recent global EROI study that we are well passed the maximum levels of efficiency. The amount of energy we can extract from fossil fuels compared to the energy used to extract it was once lucratively high — around 44:1 in the 1960s. Since then it has inexorably declined to just over 30 overall, accompanied by a long-term slow-down in the growth rate of the global economy, a decline in productivity, and an expansion of debt. At this rate of decline, by 2100 we are projected to extract the same value of EROI from fossil fuels as we were in the 1800s. While there might be more actual total energy being produced by end of century, the surplus energy available could be at nineteenth century levels if we continue on a business-as-usual path of fossil fuel-dependence.

This predicament is already driving social unrest, communal polarisation and the resurgence of populism in a situation where neither governments nor wider publics really understand why economies continue to experience chronic dysfunction, instability and tepid growth.

The report to the UN forecasted that this trajectory means that the current economic system, which depends on endless growth to survive, simply cannot be sustained. It therefore portends a future of increasing unrest without a change of course. We will inevitably shift toward a new, different type of economy — if we don’t, then we face a heightened risk of social tensions that could cascade into conflict; and at worse we may well face the danger of collapse.

War in the mirror of civilisation

The risk of collapse is inherently entwined with war — industrial civilisation’s growth trajectory has not only enabled the technologies of war, but is in turn enabled by them.

Earlier this year, the main scientific committee established to determine the accuracy and nature of the definition of the Anthropocene signed off on its initial proposal positing 1950 as the starting date for the new geological era.

The sign off is the first stage of a longer scientific process to properly investigate and test what is still, in raw scientific terms, a mere hypothesis. The scientists based their preliminary evaluations on the mid-twentieth century as a major tipping point into a new era of human interference with the Earth’s geology, characterised by industrial expansion, the proliferation of agricultural chemicals, and most significant of all, the invention and deployment of the atomic bomb. The latter’s radioactive debris became embedded in sediments and glacial ice, becoming part of the geologic record. All this demonstrates an unprecedented and unmistakeable human footprint across the planet whose impacts will be seen for decades, centuries and millennia to come.

War, then, is carved into the sinews of the Anthropocene. While the twentieth and twenty-first centuries can be seen as exemplifying the inherently ecocidal dynamic of the exponential growth of human civilisation, they have also exhibited another parallel feature: the systematic proliferation of war, mass violence, and multiple forms of genocide.

These parallel features — ecocide and genocide; the destruction of our environmental life-support systems, and our direct destruction of the lives of members of our own species — do not coincide haphazardly, but are symptoms of the system of human life itself, in its current form.

From 1945 onwards, human civilisation was caught between the clash of two pseudo-scientific industrial ideologies of endless growth: capitalism and communism — the former premised on extreme privatisation and individuation, the latter premised on extreme nationalisation and collectivisation.

Both paradigms saw the Earth as little more than an external repository of resources to be exploited ad infinitum for the endless consumption of a human species, now self-defined by its capacity for technologically-driven industry.

Both promised that their paradigms would herald utopian oases of industrial prosperity for their respective societies.

In reality, both not only ‘Otherised’ the Earth itself as merely a resource to be consumed by human beings as a predator species, they simultaneously ‘Otherised’ large sections of working populations in and beyond their own demarcated territories, as little more than instruments by which to endlessly accelerate industrial productivity; and they both went on to mindlessly ‘Otherise’ each other whenever they clashed with each other (and even when they did not).

The result was that in their very different efforts to expand, both systems resulted in the mass deaths of millions of people on a colossal scale.

The Soviet Union and Maoist China deployed brutal collectivisation methods on their path toward accelerating productivity, which produced foreseeable mass deaths. This included the generation of devastating artificial famines. Stalin’s policies eliminated between 20 and 60 million people; Mao’s ‘Great Leap Forward’ caused 27 million people to starve to death.

But liberal Western governments also left a trail of blood of a quite distinct kind, in the first major spate of violence since the dawn of the Anthropocene as so far tentatively defined.

From 1945 onwards, Western governments under the leadership of the United States — bearing the mantle of leader of the ‘Capitalist Free World’ — pursued a continuous sequence of direct and covert military interventions across the world. Western military interventions generated a continuum of violence in over 70 developing nations across Asia, Africa, South America and the Middle East from mid-century until today.

British historian Mark Curtis calculates that the total number of direct and indirect deaths from these interventions is approximately 8.6–13.5 million — a conservative underestimate, he qualifies. The interventions were often aimed at quelling nationalist movements for self-determination. Although publicly justified as defensive actions to repel communist subversion, Curtis’ evaluation of historical archives from the US and British governments revealed that policy planners had deliberately inflated the communist threat to justify a militarism aimed at defending Western business interests and acquiring control of critical resources and raw materials. In the Middle East, the biggest prize was control of strategic fossil fuel reserves, the very lifeblood of economic growth.

Development economist J. W. Smith has offered a higher estimate of the death toll, which he puts somewhere between 12–15 million deaths directly due to Western military interventions, with further “hundreds of millions” dying as an indirect consequence of the destruction and reconfiguration of their economies. Smith traced how Western interventions paved the way for the imposition of new capitalist social relations designed to extinguish domestic resistance and forcibly integrate developing countries into the global capitalist economy.

In the twenty-first century, this war trajectory has escalated, not waned. The driving motor remains the use of force to expand access to resources and labour, in order to lubricate the ever-expanding networks of global capital. It is a process sanitised, though, by various ideologies of humanitarianism, benign developmentalism, and ‘national security’.

The principal interventions of the ‘war on terror’ in Iraq and Afghanistan, for instance, are resource wars in core ways.

British Foreign Office documents prove clearly that American and British policy-planners saw the invasion and occupation of Iraq as a way to consolidate access to one of the world’s largest oil reserves, while ensuring the continued flow of to global markets with a view to help stabilise the global economy. In Afghanistan, Congressional records have revealed longstanding US-Western efforts to establish a trans-Afghan pipeline route for the transport of oil and gas from Central Asia to Western markets, bypassing US rivals Iran and Russia. In the 1990s, the US and British even funnelled support to the Taliban in a failed bid to establish the ‘security’ needed to pursue the plan.

Consecutively, the Obama and Trump administrations both continued to back the pipeline project which remains under construction.

In the Anthropocene, resource wars are bipartisan.

Both conflicts wrought colossal violence. Although the more widely accepted estimates of deaths in the hundreds of thousands are terrible enough, higher scale estimates could be more accurate, ranging up to a total of around 4 million people killed directly and indirectly across both conflicts since 1990.

Since then, war in the Anthropocene has intensified and proliferated in new and surprising ways as the more vulnerable nodes of human civilisation have begun to experience overlapping levels of failure and collapse due to the slow acceleration of converging climate, energy, food and water crises. The 2011 Arab Spring uprisings spiralled into a protracted, coalescing amalgamation of riots, civil wars and armed conflicts encompassing multiple theatres, Syria, Yemen, Libya and beyond.

The Arab Spring had been triggered by food price shocks which were, in turn, driven by a confluence of economic-energy shocks interacting with a series of climate shocks which had led to droughts and extreme weather crises across the world’s major food basket regions. Many Arab Spring countries from Syria to Egypt to Yemen had slashed subsidies for food and fuel in preceding years, largely due to the collapse of state revenues — many of them had been former major oil exporters, but in the mid-1990s had experienced peaks of their domestic conventional oil resources. As production thus declined, so did export revenues. With subsidies in the years before 2011 disappearing, coupled with global price spikes due to rampant market speculation on commodity prices coupled with global food shortages, prices of staple foods in these largely import-dependent countries rocketed. As the price of bread became unaffordable, people across the region hit the streets.

The Earth system crisis of the Anthropocene played a critical role in prolonging and amplifying this Middle East crisis, which in turn drove migration and asylum seeking from 2011 to 2015 to an unprecedented degree. Some 11.5 percent of the population of Syria alone has been killed in the ensuing conflict. The West, Russia, Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE have vied for control of Syria for a range of geopolitical reasons, not least of which was its centrality to potential transhipment routes for oil and gas to global markets. Partisans of these different forces tend to absolve their favoured side(s) of complicity, but it is worth noting that prior to the 2011 uprising the State Department was actively negotiating with Syria and EU officials to push forward a pipeline route through the country to transport Iraqi oil to Europe; Russia simultaneously saw Assad’s efforts to capitalise on Syria’s strategic position vis-a-vis the region’s energy corridors as a fundamental threat to Putin’s own gas export plans — the war provided the ideal spoiler, with each side using it to try to further their own interests, the Syrian people be damned.

In the Anthropocene, so-called anti-imperialists have few qualms about fighting resource wars in their own self-interest.

The million plus migrants that turned up on the shores of Europe did so as a direct result of these wars. They were escaping devastating geopolitical conflicts amplified by vested interests, but which had also been created or exacerbated by severe droughts amplified by climate change.

According to the co-author of a key study of the climate-migration connection, Dr Raya Muttarak — a senior lecturer in geography and international development at the University of East Anglia: “The effect of climate on conflict occurrence is particularly relevant for countries in Western Asia in the period 2010–2012, when many were undergoing political transformation during the so-called Arab Spring uprisings.” Muttarak and his team showed that climate change laid the groundwork for the simmering tensions which led to the outbreak of war in Syria and across parts of the region, by generating droughts that led to mass migration.

The mass migration triggered by these processes, in turn, have transformed and radicalised politics across the Western hemisphere. They provided the fodder for extreme nationalist narratives funded by colossal quantities of ‘dark money’ from a cross-section of trans-Atlantic right-wing elites, many of whom hold vested interests in perpetuating deregulation for fossil fuel giants and other giant corporations.

The mass migration thus stoked nativist fears that helped fuel the rise of extreme nationalist movements, which suddenly found renewed constituencies for their views and policies with increasing numbers of ordinary citizens who felt disillusioned with the prevailing order, but had no way of making sense of it. They knew, can feel, that something is deeply wrong, that the old order is collapsing, but their diagnosis is incomplete, narcissistic, fragmented and symptom-oriented. As such, it has led to incomplete, narcissistic, fragmented and symptom-oriented political reactionism.

The series of victories for the far-right that followed the eruption of Earth system crisis in the Middle East between 2011 and 2015 can thus be seen as a direct consequence of an incoherent cognitive response to the crisis, which reacted purely to its chief symptom: the desperate mass movement of vulnerable peoples.

We thus witnessed a series of seismic shifts in the reconfiguration of Western political systems, a hardening and centralising of power, a self-centring of values, a defensive rejectionism of science, and a polarising of identities, manifesting in a string of extreme nationalist wins. In 2014, far-right parties won just under a quarter of all seats in the European Parliament. In 2015, David Cameron was re-elected as Prime Minister with a parliamentary majority, a victory attributed in part to his promise to hold a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union. Unbeknownst to many, the Tories had quietly established wide-ranging links with many of the same far-right parties that were now capturing seats in the EU. The following year in June, the ‘Brexit’ referendum shocked the world with its result: a majority vote to leave the EU. Six months later, billionaire real estate guru Donald Trump became president of the world’s most powerful country. Like the Conservatives in the UK, the Republicans too had forged trans-Atlantic connections with European parties and movements of the extreme-right. Since then, far-right parties have made continued electoral gains across Europe in Italy, Sweden, Germany, France, Poland and Hungary; they are now just short of a third of seats in the European Parliament — and they are rapidly consolidating elsewhere, in the Philippines, Brazil, India, Myanmar and beyond.

The troubles and tribulations of contemporary politics, the increasing polarisation between left and right, the chronic incapacity to engage constructively across ideological divides, have become a pantomime hyperreality obsessing our consciousness through our television screens, desk computers, laptops, smartphones and wearable devices. The missing link is the planetary context — the crises of contemporary politics are, indeed, tidal waves, but they are occurring on the surface of an ocean in turmoil, of which, for all intents and purposes, we remain oblivious.

Political crisis is a symptom of the accelerating Earth system crisis. And as Clausewitz famously said, war is a continuation of politics by other means.

Colonisation and globalisation in the Anthropocene

Not everyone agrees, though, that the Anthropocene began in the mid-twentieth century. Some argue that there is a strong geological case for the Anthropocene commencing with the dawn of modern global empire.

British geographers Simon Lewis and Mark Maslin have put forward a much earlier date for this unprecedented era, one that “adheres to the geological criteria for defining an epoch: 1610. This date marks the irreversible exchange of species following the collision of the Old and New worlds”, which coincided with “an associated unusual drop in atmospheric CO2 captured in Antarctic ice cores.”

This alternative dating for the Anthropocene derives from the measurable impact of farming in relation to the colonisation of America by the Spanish, a pivotal event which many historians see as marking the inception of a new, distinctive age of empire that facilitated the birth of global capitalism. The drop in CO2 at the time, visible today in the ice cores, resulted from “vegetation regrowth on abandoned farmlands following the deaths of 50 million indigenous Americans (mostly from smallpox brought by Europeans). The annexing of the Americas by Europe was also an essential precursor to the Industrial Revolution and therefore captures associated later waves of environmental change.”

This alternative dating offers a compelling re-envisioning of the Anthropocene that associates it directly with the violence of empire, with the 1610 date providing the bridge connecting the historical violence of colonial discovery with its ensuing expansionism through biological conquest.

This encompassed the mass ‘free market’ famines in Ireland and India, which saw the deaths of one million and up to 12 million respectively; as well as the trans-Atlantic slave-trade which saw the deaths of as many as 65 million Africans over five centuries — a blood-drenched international regime that was inextricably linked to the formation of a capitalist world system that helped facilitate Britain’s industrial revolution.

By this standard, the Anthropocene — encompassing the period in which the human species most profoundly and near-permanently began transforming the very geology of the Earth — simultaneously represents the rapid expansion of empire, and with it, the systematic construction of new racial categories to legitimise the emerging system of global apartheid that came with it.

In this very period, we saw the dawn of scientific racism, the formal and scientifically-justified concept of multiple races, the grotesque legacy of which we continue to struggle with today. The idea that there are different ‘races’ can be traced back to the political appropriation and distortion of neo-Darwinian theories of evolution to underpin racial hierarchies which positioned white Europeans at the pinnacle of civilised human advancement in this juggernaut of global industrial expansion.

Racism, then, is not discrimination against other ‘races’. It is the very act of creating the notion of a distinctive ‘race’ of people — that is, of possessing common generalised characteristics, an act inseparable from the very dawn of the Anthropocene, which witnessed the emergence of a civilisation defined by its insatiable hunger for resources and labour.

Polarised constructions of the ‘Other’ have played a crucial ideological function throughout the Anthropocene, cleaving human beings from the environments in which they find themselves, and cleaving them apart from each other into exploitative factions of power. And so it is no surprise that the formalisation of racism as a global system appeared to solidify during the industrial revolution, as the human species’ domination of the Earth began to reach exponential acceleration.

In the early nineteenth century, racism manifested largely as a religious ideology linked to interpretations of the Bible, viewing non-European groups as inherently inferior due to their heathen beliefs and ancestry, and frequently targeted Jews. From the mid-nineteenth to the early twentieth centuries, racism evolved on the basis of scientifically-justified biological theories which attributed fixed traits, behaviours, characteristics, abilities and disabilities to constructed groups of people based on their supposedly distinctive biological characteristics. Since then, racism has continued to evolve and is largely underpinned by a cultural theory which still projects homogenised constructions of different social groups with common traits and characteristics, but derived instead from their affiliation to a culture, ethnicity, nation, language or faith. Often, racism today borrows from across these subliminal theories — its proponents frequently not even recognising what they are doing.

The late sociologist Stuart Hall famously described “race” as a “floating signifier”. Rather than being a fixed concept, he explained, race has always been a deeply and inherently political construct, projected by powerful dominant groups, justifying unequal power relations with other groups. As such, it is a construct that changes and adapts to historical circumstance. Far from being exclusively biologically determined, Hall showed that the new type of cultural racism moves beyond discrimination related to skin colour. Instead, it focuses on the imagined cultures of people, generalised abstractions about their beliefs and practices, projecting a hierarchy of cultures. Racialised stereotypes can thus cut across colour divides, and ‘non-racial’ categories like faith, culture and civilisation can become racist code for similar discriminatory practices. One result is the projection of an unsurpassable divide between the “West” and “the Rest”, in which “Westerners” are seen as “civilised”, “safe”, “known”, while “migrants”, “Muslims”, “asylum seekers”, “foreigners” and so on are viewed as “uncivilised”, “dangerous”, and “different”.

The deepening and acceleration of identity-politics is a defining feature of the tail-end of the Anthropocene, as the endless growth project of maximum extraction, exploitation and centralisation of resources invents and entrenches multiple divides between human beings on its path of self-legitimisation. And so, too, the devastating impacts of the Earth system crisis remain racialised, with the worst consequences disproportionately affecting the poorer, darker nations around the world.

War is, perhaps, the most visible surface-symptom of the Anthropocene’s defining feature.

In the Anthropocene, we all become Others.

It is not yet too late to begin to actively redefine the meaning of the Anthropocene.

For ultimately, the character of the Anthropocene so far is a reflection of the system of human civilisation within the prevailing paradigm. This is a life-destroying paradigm, a death-machine whose internal logic culminates in its own termination. It is a matrix of interlocking beliefs, values, behaviours and organisational forms which functions as a barrier, not an entry-point, to life, nature and reality.

And in that sense, the end of this paradigm is utterly inevitable. But this does not erase the choice before us — which is to decide whether humanity will perish in the ashes of this paradigm, or plant seeds of a new life-affirming paradigm by building out an emerging system for the flourishing of a new ecological civilisation.

If human civilisation is to survive, it will not be what we see before us — erected on the blood of millions; premised on the exhaustion of planetary resources; crushing the bones of the poor, vulnerable and weak; hell-bent on self-annihilation — that does so. This is a paradigm beguiled by a techno-hyperreality of its own projection; a utopian simulacrum of endless growth, desperately attempting to conceal its own dystopic core from self-awareness.

And so our task is to reflect on what we have truly done to each other, and to the planet; and to recognise that these two phenomena are part of the same self-defeating paradigm: one which perpetually constructs a hyperreality of divisions, borders, and boundaries around projected externalisations of the ‘Other’, seemingly necessitating exploitative, parasitical behaviours. What emerges from this recognition is the relinquishing of the binary delusions that have riven the path of civilisation for hundreds of years, and thereby an embracing of a new vision of what it means to be human — retrieving the essence of our existence as beings who, together, have come from, and will inevitably return to, the Earth itself.

Nafeez Ahmed

Dr. Nafeez Ahmed is a bestselling author, investigative journalist, international security scholar, policy expert, film-maker, strategy & communications consultant, and change activist. The focus of Ahmed’s work is to catalyse social change in the public interest by harnessing radical, systemic approaches to understanding the interconnections between the world’s biggest problems …